中国碳排放治理的绿色财政政策研究:基于异质性电力生产系统的E-DSGE模型  

Research on the Green Fiscal Policy of Carbon Emissions Governance in China:Based on the E-DSGE Model of the Heterogeneous Electricity Production System

作　　者：李天宇[1] 杨旗 齐亚东 王宝玲 LI Tianyu;YANG Qi;QI Yadong;WANG Baoling(Jilin University,130012)

机构地区：[1]吉林大学数量经济研究中心,130012

出　　处：《财贸经济》2024年第8期68-85,共18页Finance & Trade Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目“促进全体人民共同富裕的路径研究”(22AZD018);教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目“新时期共同富裕方向的经济高质量发展的宏观调控体系协同优化研究”(22JD790021);吉林大学基本科研业务费“碳达峰碳中和”专项研究项目(2022ST02)。

摘　　要：高质量发展要求平衡好经济发展与环境质量之间的关系,电力行业是我国最大的碳排放部门,面临巨大的减排压力。本文通过构建包含异质性电力生产系统和环境要素在内的DSGE模型,对比分析了碳税政策和环境公共支出政策的传导机制与治理效应,并结合现实背景考察了“保增长”和“控碳排”双重偶然紧约束下非线性联合政策规则的调控机制,利用福利分析方法进一步揭示了政策规则町住系数的设定规律。研究发现,第一,町住碳排放的碳税政策和环境公共支出政策都能实现碳排放的治理;第二,碳税政策通过激发电力生产商提高自主减排的努力程度实现碳减排,但代价是在一定程度上抑制经济增长,而环境公共支出政策具有治理碳排放和拉动总需求的双重红利,但减排效果不如碳税政策;第三,偶然紧约束下的非线性联合政策规则能够有效应对现实经济在“保增长”和“控碳排”之间的权衡取舍,实现经济的合理调控,但福利分析发现政策规则町住系数设定时要充分考虑两种政策间的相互影响,合理搭配使用才能取得更好的效果。By constructing a DSGE model containing heterogeneous power production systems and environmental factors,this paper compares and analyzes the transmission mechanism and the governance effect of the carbon tax policy and the environmental public expenditure policy,and examines the regulation mechanism of non-linear joint policy rules under the dual occasional tight constraints of maintaining growth and controlling carbon emissions.The welfare analysis method was used to further reveal the setting law of the pegged coefficient of policy rules.The findings are as follows.First,the carbon tax policy and the environmental public expenditure policy that focus on carbon emissions are effective in carbon emissions governance.Second,the carbon tax policy reduces carbon emissions by stimulating power producers to voluntarily cut carbon emissions,but at the cost of economic growth to a certain extent,while the environmental public expenditure policy can control carbon emissions and stimulate aggregate demand at the same time,but has less emissions reduction effect than the carbon tax policy.Third,the non-linear joint policy rules with occasional tight constraints can effectively deal with the trade-off between maintaining growth and controlling carbon emissions in the real economy and achieve reasonable economic regulation.However,welfare analysis found that the policy rules should fully consider the interplay between the two policies when setting the targeting coefficient,and their reasonable use can lead to better results.This paper has the following three contributions.First,in terms of model construction,this paper incorporates heterogeneous power production systems and environmental factors into the DSGE model,divides the power production system into two parts:clean power and conventional power,and adds two core mechanisms of independent governance of enterprises'voluntary emissions reduction efforts and the governance of environmental public expenditure to traditional power producers.Secondly,in the setting of linear

关 键 词：碳排放 绿色财政政策 电力生产系统 DSGE模型 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济] F206