基本养老保险个人账户的基金模式:实账积累还是名义记账?  

Individual Accounts of Basic Pension:Funded or Unfunded?

作　　者：李云龙 詹家煊 王晓军[1,2] Li Yunlong;Zhan Jiaxuan;Wang Xiaojun(School of Statistics,Renmin University of China,Beijing 100872,China;Center for Applied Statistics,Renmin University of China,Beijing 100872,China;Social Insurance Fund Supervision Office,Bureau of Human Resources and Social Security of Shanghai,Shanghai 200125,China)

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学统计学院,北京100872 [2]中国人民大学应用统计科学研究中心,北京100872 [3]上海市人力资源和社会保障局社会保险基金监督处,上海200125

出　　处：《中国管理科学》2024年第7期37-44,共8页Chinese Journal of Management Science

基　　金：中国人民大学2021年度拔尖创新人才培育资助计划。

摘　　要：我国的基本养老保险实行社会统筹与个人账户相结合的模式,其中个人账户的基金模式涉及对参保人的养老金权益保护。本文借助连续时间OLG模型,探究完善个人账户的模型条件,给出做实个人账户所需资金的约束条件,模拟在不同参数假设下做实个人账户的财务结果,得出在未来5~20年内做实个人账户面临的巨大财务压力。采取名义记账式个人账户模式,并在适当的个人账户参数设定下,能够保护参保人的养老金权益,也能维持制度长期财务可持续。The basic pension in China is based on the combination of social pooling and individual accounts,in which the fund model of individual accounts involves the protection of pension accrued rights and pension benefits.However,the government is still considering whether individual accounts should be funded or unfunded.The existing research supporting the funded individual accounts argues that it is better to cope with the aging of the population and that the ownership of individual accounts should be vested in individuals.Scholars who hold opposing views believe that unfunded individual accounts have higher transition costs,which leads to greater pressure on national finance.Through the model and empirical analysis,theoretical support for whether the individual account needs to be funded is provided.In demography,the continuous time OLG model rather than the multi-generation OLG model can depict the dynamic changes in population structure,resulting in better interpretability of the results.With the help of the continuous time OLG model,the model conditions are explored to improve individual accounts.Given the constraints of the funds needed to improve the individual account,the financial pressure faced by the government is simulated under different parameter assumptions and it is concluded that there will be huge financial pressure in the next 5-20 years.Adopting the unfunded and bookkeeping individual account,and setting appropriate account parameters can protect individual accrued and pension benefits and maintain the long-term financial sustainability of the system.

关 键 词：基本养老保险 个人账户 积累制 记账制 OLG模型 

分 类 号：F842[经济管理—保险]