强美元周期下中国跨境资本流动的风险与应对  

The Cross-Border Capital Flow Risks Faced by China and Its Countermeasures under the Strong Dollar Cycle

作　　者：梁涛 张春生 LIANG Tao;ZHANG Chunsheng

机构地区：[1]广东金融学院经济贸易学院,广州510521 [2]广东财经大学金融学院,广州510320

出　　处：《亚太经济》2024年第4期39-48,共10页Asia-Pacific Economic Review

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目“金融市场开放环境下的国家金融安全研究”(20BJY241)。

摘　　要：分析2015—2019年、2022年以来两个阶段强美元周期影响中国跨境资本流动的典型事实,通过对比这两个阶段,指出未来中国跨境资本流动可能面临流出进一步加剧、流入减少以及外汇储备较大规模流失的风险。考虑到中国经济增速放缓、中美利差倒挂、人民币持续贬值、资产价格大幅下跌、未来经济不确定性进一步增加等国内外环境变化,提出缓解跨境资本流动风险的对策建议:一是继续完善跨境资本流动的宏观审慎管理框架;二是持续提升系统性风险的识别、监测和防范能力;三是重点关注、防范跨境资本通过非管制金融机构流出;四是畅通国内国际双循环,促进跨境资本双向均衡发展;五是加强国际监管合作,构建区域金融安全网。This paper analyzes the typical facts of how the strong dollar cycles in the two phases of 2015-2019 and since 2022 have impacted the cross-border capital flows in China. By comparing these two phases, it points out that China's cross-border capital flows may face the risks of further intensified outflows, reduced inflows and significant depletion of foreign exchange reserves in the future. Considering the changes in domestic and international environments such as the slowdown of China's economic growth, the inversion of China-US interest rate differentials, continuous depreciation of the RMB, significant declines in asset prices and increased future economic uncertainties, this paper proposes an optimized strategy to mitigate the risks of cross-border capital flows, which is different from the past:the first is to, continue to improve the macro-prudential management framework for cross-border capital flows;the second is to, continuously enhance the ability to identify, monitor and prevent systemic risks;the third is to, focus on and guard against the outflow of cross-border capital through unregulated financial institutions;the fourth is to, facilitate the dual circulation of domestic and international markets and promote the balanced development of cross-border capital in both directions;the fifth is to, strengthen international regulatory cooperation and build a regional financial safety net.

关 键 词：跨境资本流动 强美元周期 宏观审慎管理 金融安全网 

分 类 号：F831.6[经济管理—金融学]