对置盐准则的计量检验  

An Econometric Test of the Okishio Criterion

作　　者：梁俊尚 顾珊 Liang Junshang;Gu Shan(Center for Studies of Political Economy,Nankai University;School of Economics,Nankai University;School of Marxism,Nankai University)

机构地区：[1]南开大学政治经济学研究中心 [2]南开大学经济学院经济系 [3]南开大学马克思主义学院

出　　处：《政治经济学评论》2024年第4期175-195,共21页China Review of Political Economy

基　　金：中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金(批准号:63232148)的资助。

摘　　要：置盐定理在理论上十分稳健,但其所依赖的技术选择标准——置盐准则——在经验上是否成立尚未得到严谨验证。本文采用自回归分布滞后方法对1947年至2018年间美国非金融公司经济部门的时间序列数据进行分析。研究发现,在假定实际工资率不变的情况下,占主导地位的资本有机构成提高的技术变革对均衡利润率具有显著的正向影响。根据置盐定理的逆定理,我们可以得出结论:二战后美国非金融公司部门主要发生的资本有机构成提高型技术变革大体上符合置盐准则。因此,我们为置盐准则提供了经验证据支持。The Okishio Theorem has been shown to be very robust theoretically.However,the criterion for the choice of technique it relies on has not been rigorously tested empirically.This paper aims to fill this gap by using econometric methods to empirically test the Okishio criterion.We employ an Autoregressive Distributed Lag(ARDL)approach,utilizing time series data from the US nonfinancial corporate sector spanning 1947 to 2018.Our analysis reveals that,assuming a constant real wage rate,the type of technical change that increases the organic composition of capital(OCC)has a significantly positive effect on the equilibrium rate of profit.According to the converse of the Okishio Theorem,we conclude that the dominant OCC-increasing technical change observed in the US nonfinancial corporate sector post-World War II largely conforms to the Okishio criterion.Thus,we provide empirical evidence supporting the practical relevance of the Okishio criterion.

关 键 词：置盐定理 技术选择 置盐准则 利润率下降规律 资本有机构成 

分 类 号：F249.712[经济管理—劳动经济] F171.2[经济管理—国民经济]