青藏高原东南缘洱海流域人工增雨效果评估  

Evaluation and Analysis of Artificial Rainfall Enhancement in Erhai Basin on Southeastern Edge of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

作　　者：陈焘 高月忠 严天鹤 张振秀 杨葳葳 CHEN Tao;GAO Yuezhong;YAN Tianhe;ZHANG Zhenxiu;YANG Weiwei(Dali Meteorological Bureau,Yunnan,Dali 671000)

机构地区：[1]云南省大理州气象局,大理671000

出　　处：《气象科技》2024年第4期583-591,共9页Meteorological Science and Technology

基　　金：云南省科技厅重点研发计划-社会发展专项(202203AC100005-4);云南省气象局科研项目(YZ202430);云南省气象局创新团队(2022CX07);云南省气象局青年科技创新团队(2022QN01)共同资助。

摘　　要：采用区域回归数值模拟评价方案对2005—2020年洱海流域火箭人工增雨效果进行统计检验,得出洱海流域层云、混合云增雨效率分别为16.57%和20.09%。利用新一代天气雷达和激光雨滴谱仪对2020年1月31日层云降水和8月13日混合云降水进行增雨效果物理检验发现:作业后试验区层云目标云体雷达最大回波强度和平均垂直积分液态水含量(VIL)略有降低,回波顶高变化不大,混合云目标云体最大回波强度、平均VIL和回波顶高均出现跃增,两种类型增雨作业后地面降雨强度均显著增强。雨滴谱特征表明,试验区层云和混合云雨强和雨滴数浓度在作业后10~15 min开始增加,最大数浓度所在直径由0.437 mm增加到0.562 mm,雨滴谱的谱宽增加,峰型由单峰变为双峰结构。With global warming,the occurrence of extreme weather and climate events,coupled with the rapid development of the economy and society,the problem of water resource shortages in Erhai Lake is becoming increasingly serious.To increase precipitation in the Erhai Lake basin,the meteorological department often carries out artificial rainfall enhancement operations and establishes artificial rainfall enhancement test areas in the Erhai Lake basin to conduct artificial rainfall enhancement effect evaluation research,so as to improve the ability of artificial rainfall enhancement operations.According to the weather situation of the rainfall enhancement operation day,this paper selects 819 daily precipitation data points of the test area and the contrast area in the Erhai Lake basin from 2005 to 2014(November to February in winter and June to September in summer),and 79 rainfall enhancement operation data points from^(2)015 to 2020.The artificial rainfall enhancement operations in the Erhai Lake basin are subject to statistical and physical tests,and the following conclusions are drawn.(1)The statistical effect test of the artificial rainfall enhancement operations in the Erhai Lake basin is carried out by using the regional regression numerical simulation evaluation programme.The rainfall enhancement efficiency of stratus and mixed cloud is 16.57%and 20.09%respectively,and passes the significance test at the significance levelα≤0.05.(2)The physical examination of the rainfall enhancement effect of the stratus cloud precipitation on 31 January 2020 and the mixed cloud precipitation on 13 August 2020 is conducted by using the new generation of weather radar.The results show that the maximum echo intensity and the average vertical integral liquid water content(VIL)of the stratus cloud target cloud body in the experimental area decreases slightly after the operation,and the echo top height changes little.The maximum echo intensity,the average VIL and the echo top height of the mixed cloud target cloud body increase rapid

关 键 词：人工增雨 统计检验 物理检验 气象雷达 雨滴谱 

分 类 号：P481[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]