攀西地区芒果关键生育期干旱指标判识  

Drought identification indicators for the critical growth period of mango in Panxi region

作　　者：袁月 陈东东[2,3] 杜成勋 廖伟 冉津江 栗晓玮 YUAN Yue;CHEN Dongdong;DU Chengxun;LIAO Wei;RAN Jingjiang;LI Xiaowei(Sichuan Branch,China Mete-orological Administration Training Center,Chengdu 610072,China;Agro-meteorological Center of Sichuan Pro-vince,Chengdu 610072,China;Provincial Key Laboralory of Water-Saring Agriculture in Hill Areas of Southern China,Chengdu 610072,China;Weather Bureau of Panzhihua,Panzhihua 617000,Sichuan,China;Chongqing University of Education,Chongqing 400065,China)

机构地区：[1]中国气象局气象干部培训学院四川分院,成都610072 [2]四川省农业气象中心,成都610072 [3]南方丘区节水农业研究四川省重点实验室,成都610072 [4]攀枝花市气象局,四川攀枝花617000 [5]重庆第二师范学院,重庆400065

出　　处：《生态学杂志》2024年第8期2414-2420,共7页Chinese Journal of Ecology

基　　金：高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室科技发展基金项目(SCQXKJQN202123);四川省科技厅重点研发项目(2023YFS0441和2023YFS0376)资助。

摘　　要：选取芒果开花坐果期和果实膨大期作为研究时段,在综合考虑芒果不同生育阶段水分供需状况的基础上,利用攀西地区气象资料、芒果物候观测资料和小样本的芒果灾情资料,以聚类分析、样本距离分析等方法确定芒果关键生育期的干旱判识指标。使用T检验、预留历史样本检验和典型站、典型年份判识等方法,对干旱判识指标有效性进行了检验。结果表明:芒果干旱触发阈值,开花坐果期为0.89,果实膨大期为0.80;基于芒果关键生育期干旱判识指标提取的干旱指数与历史样本在序列上具有一致性,判识指标对预留历史样本判识准确率为81.5%,典型站长时间序列灾害样本的指标判识准确率为95%;指标可应用于典型年份的干旱灾害判识,典型年份干旱区域的指标判识准确率为85.7%。研究结果可为攀西地区芒果干旱监测和防旱减灾提供技术支撑。Considering water supply and demand situation of mango at different growth stages,the drought identifi-cation indicators of mango at flowering and fruiting stage and fruit expansion stage were determined using meteoro-logical data,phenological data of mango and small samples of mango disaster data in Panxi region by cluster analy-sis and sample distance analysis.The validity of drought identification indicators was verified by T-test,reserved history sample test,typical station,and identification of typical years.The drought-triggering threshold at the flow-ering and fruiting stage and fruit expansion stage were 0.89 and 0.80,respectively.The drought indices extracted based on the drought identification indicators at critical growth stages were consistent with that in historical disaster samples.The identification accuracy of the identification indicators for the reserved historical samples was 81.5%,and the identification accuracy of the indicators for long time-series disaster samples of a typical station was 95%.The drought identification indicators can be used to drought disaster identification in typical years,and the accuracy of the indicator identification in drought areas in typical years was 85.7%.The results can provide technical support for drought monitoring and drought prevention and mitigation of mango in Panxi region.

关 键 词：芒果 水分盈亏指数 干旱指数 指标判识 

分 类 号：S667.7[农业科学—果树学] S423[农业科学—园艺学]