迎峰度夏、迎峰度冬电力供需形势影响因素分析  

Analysis of Influencing Factors on Electric Power Demand and Supply During Summer and Winter Peak

作　　者：王涛 张剑[1] 吴婧 南思博 周凌安 李昊 梁予惠 夏嘉航 WANG Tao;ZHANG Jian;WU Jing;NAN Sibo;ZHOU Ling'an;LI Hao;LIANG Yuhui;XIA Jiahang(China Electric Power Planning&Engineering Institute,Beijing 100120,China)

机构地区：[1]电力规划设计总院,北京100120

出　　处：《电力勘测设计》2024年第8期16-20,共5页Electric Power Survey & Design

摘　　要：全社会对于电力供需形势和电力安全保障关注度日益提升,极端天气频率、强度、持续时间超预期等因素为短期电力安全保供形势增加了不确定性。本文结合近几年全国电力安全保供实践经验,系统梳理分析影响迎峰度夏、迎峰度冬电力供需形势的敏感因素,包括极端天气、电源结构、一次能源供应、机组非计划停运等。针对上述因素,进一步提出构建多元综合供应保障体系的措施建议。There has been an increasing focus across society on the situation of electricity demand and supply as well as the security of electric power.The unexpected frequency,intensity and duration of extreme weather introduce significant uncertainty into the short-term electric power supply security.In this paper,based on practical experiences of national electric power supply,systematic reviews are conducted for the main factors affecting electric power demand and supply during the summer and winter peak.These factors include the extreme weather,the structure of the power sources,the supply of primary energy,and unplanned outages.In light of the above factors,further measures are proposed aiming to construct a diverse and comprehensive supply security system.

关 键 词：电力供需 电力保障 极端天气 电源结构 一次能源 非计划停运 

分 类 号：TK01[动力工程及工程热物理] TM715[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]