变化环境下区域海水入侵数值模拟与影响因素分析  

Examining regional seawater intrusion through numerical simulations amid environmental changes and analyzing influencing factors

作　　者：李岱远 施睿[1] 吴永祥[1] 王高旭[1] 张轩 万永静 LI Daiyuan;SHI Rui;WU Yongxiang;WANG Gaoxu;ZHANG Xuan;WAN Yongjing(The National Key Laboratory of Water Disaster Prevention,Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute,Nanjing 210029,China;Civil Engineering&Architecture,Anhui University of Technology,Maanshan 243000,China)

机构地区：[1]南京水利科学研究院水灾害防御全国重点实验室,江苏南京210029 [2]安徽工业大学建筑工程学院,安徽马鞍山243000

出　　处：《水利水运工程学报》2024年第4期1-14,共14页Hydro-Science and Engineering

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2022YFC3204601);国家自然科学基金面上项目(42175177);广东省水利科技创新项目(2021-07);南京水利科学研究院基本科研业务费青年基金项目(Y522016)。

摘　　要：为科学防治海水入侵,保护沿海地区生态环境,以山东省龙口市为例,构建了SEAWAT海水入侵数值模型,通过情景分析法定量评估了海水入侵影响因子,针对性提出了地下水开发利用对策,并预测了未来海水入侵发展趋势。结果表明,构建的数值模型可以准确模拟地下水位时空变化,能反映海水入侵发展变化。模型检验期内地下水位模拟值与观测值的均方根误差、绝对平均误差和平均相对误差分别为0.903 m、0.811 m和8.78%,相应地,氯离子质量浓度分别为51.61mg/L、41.52mg/L和9.61%。地下水开采和降水是龙口市海水入侵变化的主要影响因素,其中北马镇等北部沿海地区是地下水管控的重点区域。在现状地下水开采条件下,未来龙口市海水入侵面积总体上呈现减小趋势,到2050年末预计为128.68km^(2)。沿海地区应考虑丰枯水年变化对地下水可开采量的影响,同时实施分区动态开采管控,能有效防控海水入侵。该研究结果可为海水入侵演变、影响因素识别及沿海地区地下水开发利用等提供参考。In order to scientifically prevent and control seawater intrusion(SI)and protect the ecological environment,the variable-density SI numerical model based on SEAWAT was developed in Longkou City.By conducting scenario analyses,the quantitative assessment of SI’s influencing factors was accomplished.Furthermore,measures for groundwater utilization to counter SI were proposed.The study also presents a projection of SI trends from 2018 to 2050.The findings demonstrate that the numerical model accurately simulates the spatiotemporal variations in groundwater levels and effectively captures SI's progression.Evaluation during the testing phase yielded root mean square error(ERMSE),mean absolute error(EMAE),and mean relative error(EMRE)values of 0.903 m,0.811 m,and 8.78%,respectively,for groundwater levels.Correspondingly,ERMSE,EMAE,and EMRE values for chloride concentration in the monitoring well were 51.61 mg/L,42.52 mg/L,and 9.61%,respectively.Moreover,the quantitative assessment revealed that groundwater pumping and precipitation exerted significant influences on SI,with the northern coastal regions,such as Beima Town,being crucial areas for groundwater management.The predictive analysis indicates a declining trend in SI,with an estimated SI area of approximately 128.68 km^(2) by the end of 2050.Consequently,future management strategies should account for the impact of wet and dry years on exploitable groundwater reserves.Additionally,implementing partitioned groundwater management measures can effectively mitigate SI risks.This study holds substantial significance for understanding the evolution of SI,identifying its influencing factors,and ensuring sustainable groundwater development and utilization in coastal regions.

关 键 词：海水入侵 地下水水位 氯离子质量浓度 地下水开采 

分 类 号：P641[天文地球—地质矿产勘探]