“多碰头”复合灾害遭遇组合概率及重现期计算方法研究  

An Approach to Calculate the Joint Distribution Probability and Return Periods of Multi-encountering Compound Disasters

作　　者：余龙飞 佘贞燕 范敏韬 刘智勇 YU Longfei;SHE Zhenyan;FAN Mintao;LIU Zhiyong(Center for Water Resources and Environment,School of Civil Engineering,Sun Yat-sen University,Guangzhou 510275,China;Guangdong Laboratory of Marine Science and Engineering(Zhuhai),Zhuhai 519082,China;School of Marine Engineering and Technology,Sun Yat-sen University,Guangzhou 510275,China)

机构地区：[1]中山大学土木工程学院水资源与环境研究中心,广东广州510275 [2]南方海洋科学与工程广东省实验室(珠海),广东珠海519082 [3]中山大学海洋工程与技术学院,广东广州510275

出　　处：《水文》2024年第4期11-18,共8页Journal of China Hydrology

基　　金：广东省杰出青年科学基金项目(2020A1515010559);国家重点研发计划项目(2021YFC3001000);国家自然科学基金项目(52179031);珠江人才计划团队项目(2019ZT08G090);广东省水文局项目(440001-2023-10716)。

摘　　要：为揭示变化环境下“多碰头”复合水文地质灾害的风险规律,采用二维Copula联合概率函数,构建具有“藤状”结构的复合灾害遭遇组合概率分布模型,对模型进行精确拟合,选用log-lik、AIC、BIC三种拟合优度检验方法进行优选。针对不同灾害发生情景,计算复合灾害遭遇组合的联合累积概率及肯德尔联合重现期。以粤港澳大湾区佛山站(降雨-滑坡(泥石流)-山洪)以及灯笼山站(台风-风暴潮增水-洪水)复合灾害遭遇组合事件为例,构建三类灾害组合的概率分布模型。结果表明,随着单一灾害情景的极端性增加,复合灾害遭遇组合联合累积概率及重现期相应增大,从而揭示了复合灾害的风险模式。本研究可为预估“多碰头”复合灾害遭遇组合的风险提供理论支持,对于复合水文地质灾害风险预估有参考意义。To unveil the risk patterns of multi encountering compound hydrogeological disasters under changing environments,this study employed a bivariate Copula joint probability function and constructs a compound disaster encounter combination probability distribution model with a vine structure.The model underwent precise fitting using three fit quality test methods:log-likelihood(log-lik),Akaike Information Criterion(AIC),and Bayesian Information Criterion(BIC)for optimal selection.For various disaster oc-currence scenarios,this research calculated the joint cumulative probability and Kendall joint recurrence period of compound disas-ter encounter combinations.Taking the compound disaster encounter events at Foshan station(rainfall-landslide(debris flow)-flash flood)and Denglongshan station(typhoon-storm surge-flood)in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area as cases,prob-ability distribution models for three types of disaster combinations were constructed.The results indicate that with the increase in the extremity of individual disaster scenarios,the joint cumulative probability and recurrence period of the compound disaster en-counter combinations correspondingly rise,thereby revealing the risk patterns of compound disasters.This study could provide theo-retical support for estimating the risk of encountering combinations of multi encountering compound disasters and has references for the risk estimation of compound hydrogeological disasters.

关 键 词：VineCopula 概率分布模型 拟合优度检验 联合累积概率 Kendall联合重现期 

分 类 号：P332.3[天文地球—水文科学]