基于GCM模式的渭河流域未来气象干旱特征分析  

Analysis of Future Meteorological Drought Characteristics in the Weihe River Basin Based on GCMs

作　　者：王淼 陆宝宏[1] 徐健 赵盼盼 宋杨 WANG Miao;LU Baohong;XU Jian;ZHAO Panpan;SONG Yang(School of Hydrology and Water Resources,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China;School of Water Resources,North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power,Zhengzhou 450045,China)

机构地区：[1]河海大学水文水资源学院,江苏南京210098 [2]华北水利水电大学水资源学院,河南郑州450045

出　　处：《水文》2024年第4期89-97,共9页Journal of China Hydrology

摘　　要：研究流域未来气象干旱演变在防旱减灾、水资源合理利用等方面具有重要意义。考虑到影响渭河流域未来气象干旱的多种不确定因素,基于两种代表性浓度路径(RCP4.5、RCP8.5)下全球气候模式(GCMs)的降水变化率,选取前五和后五个GCMs耦合成A、B两种新模式,对应降水增幅、降幅较大的湿润情景和干燥情景,计算其标准降水指数(SPI),预测未来气象干旱变化特征。结果表明:(1)未来流域干旱整体呈减小趋势,其中在2037、2043、2044、2050年左右的突变概率较大。除RCP4.5排放情景下降水量减少导致的干旱增加外,其余情况各区域干旱都将减小;(2)2025—2068年,干旱最长持续时间为7~10个月,集中于9月—次年6月;(3)未来全流域发生无明显干旱和轻度干旱的可能性较大,不能排除偶尔发生重度干旱及特旱。研究结果为干旱半干旱地区不同情景下的水资源管理提供参考。The study of future meteorological drought evolution in the basin is of great significance in its drought prevention,miti-gation and rational allocation of water resources.In this paper,considering multiple uncertainties affecting the future meteorological drought in the Weihe River Basin,based on the precipitation change rates of global climate models(GCMs)under two representa-tive concentration paths(RCP4.5,RCP8.5),the first five and last five GCMs were selected to couple into two new models,A and B,corresponding to the wet scenario and dry scenario with larger precipitation increases and decreases.Standard precipitation indi-ces(SPI)was calculated to predict future meteorological drought change characteristics.The results show:(1)the overall trend of future drought in the basin is decreasing,with a higher probability of abrupt changes around 2037,2043,2044,and 2050.Except for the increase of drought due to the decrease of precipitation under the RCP4.5 emission scenario,the drought in all regions will decrease in all other cases;(2)the longest duration of drought is 7-10 months,concentrated in September to June of the fol-lowing year;(3)the probability of no significant drought and mild drought in the whole basin in the future is higher,and the oc-currence of occasional severe drought and exceptional drought cannot be excluded.The results could provide references for water resources management under different scenarios in arid and semi-arid regions.

关 键 词：渭河流域 气象干旱 降水量 GCM SPI指数 时空变化 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P33[天文地球—水文科学]