负担还是红利:最低工资政策如何影响城商行信贷风险  

Burden or Benefit:How Minimum Wage Policies Affect Credit Risk in Urban Commercial Banks

作　　者：王龑 Wang Yan

机构地区：[1]大连民族大学经济管理学院

出　　处：《金融经济学研究》2024年第4期53-71,共19页Financial Economics Research

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目(22YJC790134)。

摘　　要：基于2006—2021年中国124家城商行数据,采用处理效应模型,实证检验地方政府上调省内最低工资标准对城商行信贷风险的影响。结果表明,尽管红利效应本身大于负担效应,但由于城商行资产端的对公贷款多、零售贷款少,负担效应的总体影响大于红利效应,因而最低工资政策整体上表现为加剧城商行信贷风险。宏观层面上,经济政策不确定性的上升,会加剧最低工资政策对城商行的冲击;微观层面上,优化零售转型,增加资产端的零售贷款配置比例,有助于城商行抵御最低工资政策的冲击。进一步研究发现,地方政府上调省内最低工资标准的同时,配合性地采取严监管、降税费、稳增长政策,抑或提高最低工资调标的独立性,均有助于抑制上述政策对城商行信贷风险造成的冲击。建议城商行积极推进零售转型,以应对未来可能面临的冲击,同时建议地方政府提高最低工资调标的独立性,并进行合理的政策搭配。Using data from 124 urban commercial banks in China between 2006 and 2021,this study employs a treatment effects model to empirically investigate the impact of local government increases in provincial minimum wage standards on the credit risk of urban commercial banks.The results indicate that although the"benefit effect"'of minimum wage increases exceeds their"burden effect,"the overall impact of the burden effect is greater due to the banks'asset structure,which is characterized by a higher proportion of corporate loans and fewer retail loans.Consequently,minimum wage policies,overall,tend to exacerbate the credit risk of urban commercial banks.At the macro level,the rising economic policy uncertainty intensifies the impact of minimum wage policies on these banks.At the micro level,optimizing retail transformation and increasing the proportion of retail loans in asset allocation can help banks withstand the shocks from minimum wage adjustments.Further research suggests that local governments can mitigate the adverse effects on urban commercial banks'credit risk by adopting strict regulatory measures,reducing taxes and fees,stabilizing growth,or enhancing the independence of minimum wage adjustments.It is recommended that urban commercial banks actively pursue retail transformation to prepare for potential future shocks;additionally,local governments should enhance the independence of minimum wage adjustments and implement reasonable policy combinations.

关 键 词：最低工资 信贷风险 经济政策不确定性 零售转型 政策搭配 

分 类 号：F832[经济管理—金融学]