人民币区域货币锚与“一带一路”沿线国家福利效应研究  

Research on the Welfare Effect of CNY Regional Currency Anchor on Countries along“the Belt and Road”

作　　者：方霞[1] 杨振宇 周龙平 赵平[1] FANG Xia;YANG Zhenyu;ZHOU Longping;ZHAO Ping

机构地区：[1]浙江工商大学金融学院 [2]杭州市桐庐县分水镇人民政府

出　　处：《国际贸易问题》2024年第7期123-139,共17页Journal of International Trade

基　　金：浙江工商大学“数字+”学科建设项目“跨境金融生态体系的理论构建与创新实践”(SZJ2022B002)。

摘　　要：提升“一带一路”沿线国家社会福利是构建人类命运共同体的题中之义和重要实践。本文基于Frankel-Wei模型测度“一带一路”沿线国家人民币区域货币锚效应,使用2009—2020年数据实证检验人民币区域货币锚效应对沿线国家社会福利的影响。研究发现,“一带一路”沿线国家锚定人民币能有效提高各国社会福利,且其边际效应呈现先增后减的趋势,这在社会福利成长阶段的作用效果更为明显。机制分析发现,人民币区域货币锚效应通过提高出口贸易和外商直接投资促进了“一带一路”沿线国家社会福利提升。异质性分析发现,人民币区域货币锚效应对低收入、“陆上”丝绸之路、低贸易竞争力、政治互信和文化交流水平高的国家社会福利具有显著的提升作用,且在2015年中国人民银行宣布调整人民币兑美元汇率中间价报价机制后,人民币区域货币锚效应对沿线国家社会福利的提升作用得到加强。进一步分析发现,锚定美、英、日、欧四种货币对“一带一路”沿线国家社会福利无显著的促进作用。本文从汇率制度选择的视角为提高“一带一路”沿线国家社会福利水平,推进“一带一路”高质量发展和人类命运共同体建设提供了政策启示。Enhancing the social welfare of the countries along"the Belt and Road"is an essential part of building a human community with a shared future.This paper measures the regional currency anchor effect of CNY in the countries along"the Belt and Road"based on the Frankel-Wei model,and empirically examines the impact of the regional currency anchor effect of CNY on the social welfare of the countries along"the Belt and Road"using the data from 2009 to 2020.It is found that the use of CNY as a currency anchor in the countries along"the Belt and Road"can effectively improve the social welfare of each country,and its marginal effect shows a trend of increasing and then decreasing,also this effect is more obvious in the growth stage of social welfare.Mechanism analysis reveals that the regional currency anchor effect of CNY promotes social welfare in countries along"the Belt and Road"by increasing export trade and foreign direct investment.Heterogeneity analysis finds that the CNY regional currency anchor has a significant effect on the social welfare of those countries of low income,the Overland Silk Road,low trade competitiveness,and high levels of political mutual trust and cultural exchanges.Also,the CNY regional currency anchor effects on the social welfare of the countries along the route has been strengthened after 2015,when the People's Bank of China announced the adjustment of the central parity quotation mechanism of the CNY against the US dollar.Further analysis reveals that anchoring to four currencies,USD,GBP,JPY and EUR,has no significant effect on the social welfare of the countries along"the Belt and Road".This paper provides policy insights from the perspective of the choice of exchange rate to improve the social welfare of the countries along"the Belt and Road",and to promote the high-quality development of"the Belt and Road"and the construction of a human community with a shared future.

关 键 词：人民币区域货币锚 “一带一路” 社会福利 

分 类 号：F831[经济管理—金融学]