区域贸易协定、价值链网络结构与制造业价值链关联  

Regional Trade Agreements,the Structure of Value Chain Network,and Manufacturing Value Chain Linkages

作　　者：程志宙 王岚[2] 刘依茼 HENG Zhizhou;WANG Lan;LIU Yitong

机构地区：[1]中央财经大学国际经济与贸易学院 [2]天津财经大学数字经济与管理学院 [3]天津财经大学经济学院

出　　处：《国际贸易问题》2024年第7期158-174,共17页Journal of International Trade

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目“中美贸易摩擦对中国制造业价值链的影响和对策研究”(20YJC790137);中央财经大学科教融合研究生学术新星孵化计划(202307)。

摘　　要：当前国际分工出现逆全球化、服务化与交叉化等新趋势,赋予了区域贸易协定(RTA)影响制造业价值链关联的新机制。本文基于国际分工的新特点,首次从“中心-外围”价值链网络结构视角探讨了RTA对制造业价值链关联的影响。结果表明:签订RTA以及条款深化通过降低贸易政策不确定性,推动制造业和服务业开放联动,促进价值链分工交叉化,显著深化制造业价值链关联。更重要的是,RTA通过价值链分工交叉化,影响了位于不同网络结构位置的国家间国际分工模式的演进。且该效果存在梯度差异,RTA能够打破原有中心国家的路径依赖和长期占据国际分工高位的藩篱,通过增强外围国家的后发优势,为其融入国际分工提供更多机遇。拓展性分析表明,“中心-外围型”RTA、多边协定和区域内协定有更强的促进效应;此外,RTA效应的有效发挥依赖于政府和履约方效率等缔约环境,RTA结构的“轴辐效应”则会限制其效果;在经济下行时期,RTA能发挥贸易稳定器的作用,更大程度地促进制造业价值链关联,维护产业链安全和稳定。本文为理解RTA如何影响双边价值链关系和国际分工网络演化提供了新的视角。The evolving trends in the international division of labor,including antiglobalization,servitization,and hybridization,endow regional trade agreements(RTAs)with new mechanisms influencing manufacturing value chain linkages.This paper examines the impact of RTAs and deepening provisions on manufacturing value chain linkages in light of the new characteristics of the international division of labor,from the perspective of the"center-periphery"value chain network structure.The findings indicate that RTAs and deepening provisions significantly enhance manufacturing value chain linkages by fostering interconnections between manufacturing and service sectors,reducing trade policy uncertainty,and facilitating cross-border division of labor within value chains.More importantly,RTAs have significantly influenced the evolution of the pattern in global value chain networks among countries located in different network structures by facilitating the hybridization of global value chains.This effect exhibits gradient differences.RTAs break the path dependence of central countries and long-term dominance in high positions.By enhancing the latecomer advantages of peripheral countries,RTAs provide more opportunities for these countries to integrate into the international division of labor.Further analyses suggest that"center-periphery"RTAs,multilateral agreements,and intra-regional agreements exhibit stronger facilitative effects.Moreover,the effectiveness of RTA outcomes depends on contracting environments such as government efficiency and compliance,while the"hub-andspoke effect"may constrain RTA outcomes.Finally,during economic downturns,RTAs serve as stabilizers,exerting greater influence on value chain linkages and maintaining industrial stability.This study provides novel insights into understanding the impact of RTAs on bilateral value chain relationships and the evolution of the international division of labor network.

关 键 词：区域贸易协定 价值链关联 分工模式 服务业开放联动 贸易政策不确定性 

分 类 号：F746[经济管理—国际贸易]