基于Holt-Winters模型的农村网络零售额发展趋势探析  

Analysis on the Development Trend of Rural Online Retail Sales Based on Holt-Winters Model

作　　者：朱捷 毕东[1] Zhu Jie;Bi Dong(Yunnan Agricultural University,Kunming,Yunnan 650201)

机构地区：[1]云南农业大学,云南昆明650201

出　　处：《中国商论》2024年第16期9-12,共4页China Journal of Commerce

基　　金：云南省哲学社会科学规划社会智库项目(重点项目)“云南省农文旅融合发展助推乡村振兴的路径和对策研究”(SHZK2023207)。

摘　　要：随着电子商务的快速发展,农村电商发展备受关注。本文通过对我国近十年的农村网络零售额数据进行收集整理,洞察农村网络零售额的发展现状,通过建立Holt-Winters模型进行趋势探析,得出观测值和拟合值之间的总体增长趋势相同,分析其结果所致原因并预测出未来三年的零售额发展趋势将持续呈现增长趋势,观测值有望回转逐步高于拟合值。最后,本文结合农村电商互联网发展的实际情况,提出引领消费结构升级,培育数字化乡村生活;服务乡村振兴,提质扩容县域新电商;大力推进村企融合,助力农村电商现代化等一系列有效保障措施及路径,助推农村网络零售额稳步增长。With the rapid development of e-commerce,rural e-commerce has attracted attention from all walks of life.In this paper,through the collection and collation of rural online retail sales data in China over the past ten years,we gain insight into the development status of rural online retail sales.Through the establishment of the Holt-Winters model for trend analysis,we conclude that the overall growth trend between the observed values and the fitted values is the same,analyze the reasons for the results and predict that the development trend of retail sales in the next three years will continue to show a growth trend.The observed values are expected to turn back to gradually higher than the fitted value.Finally,combined with the actual situation of rural e-commerce Internet development,it puts forward a series of effective safeguard measures and paths,such as leading the upgrading of consumption structure,cultivating digital rural life;serving rural revitalization,improving quality and expanding the capacity of new e-commerce in the county area;and vigorously promoting the fusion of villages and enterprises to assist the modernization of rural e-commerce,to boost rural online retail sales have been growing steadily.

关 键 词：电子商务 农村电商 网络零售额 大数据 互联网技术 乡村振兴 

分 类 号：F323[经济管理—产业经济]