对外直接投资对中国经济增长的影响研究  

Research on the Impact of Outward Foreign Direct Investment on China's Economic Growth

作　　者：林娜 詹满琳 杨晓彦 Lin Na;Zhan Manlin;Yang Xiaoyan(School of Economics and Management,Beibu Gulf University;School of Mechanical and Marine Engineering,Beibu Gulf University.Qinzhou,Guangxi 535011)

机构地区：[1]北部湾大学经济管理学院 [2]北部湾大学机械与船舶海洋工程学院,广西钦州535011

出　　处：《中国商论》2024年第16期13-16,共4页China Journal of Commerce

摘　　要：文章选取2002—2022年中国对外直接投资和GDP指标的各项数据,采用灰色关联度和VAR模型,具体研究对外直接投资对本国经济增长的联系、动态关系和贡献程度。研究发现:(1)在灰色关联度方面,中国对外直接投资和GDP的灰色关联度在0.6以上,两者之间存在着较为紧密的联系,具有比较高的关联程度。(2)在脉冲响应函数方面,中国对外直接投资在一定程度上对GDP产生长期的积极影响,且具有即时性,但是后期的影响作用会逐渐趋于稳定,中国对外直接投资对本国的经济增长的作用还有待进一步提高。(3)在方差分解方面,中国对外直接投资对GDP的贡献率越来越大,增长速度较快,在第10期贡献率较高。由此,文章提出相对应的对策和建议,以期促进中国对外直接投资和本国经济的协同发展。This paper selects the data of China’s outward foreign direct investment(OFDI)and gross domestic product(GDP)indicators from 2002 to 2022,and uses the grey correlation degree and vector autoregression(VAR)model to study the linkage,dynamic relationship and contribution degree of China’s OFDI to China’s economic growth.The results show that:①In terms of grey correlation degree,the grey correlation degree between China’s OFDI and GDP is above 0.6,and there is a relatively close correlation between the two,with a relatively high degree of correlation.②In terms of impulse response function,China’s OFDI has a long-term positive impact on GDP to a certain extent,and it is immediate,but the influence will gradually stabilize in the later stage,and the role of China’s OFDI on China’s economic growth needs to be further improved.③In terms of variance decomposition,China’s OFDI contributes more and more to GDP,and the growth rate is relatively fast,and the contribution rate is higher in the 10th period.Therefore,this paper puts forward corresponding countermeasures and suggestions to promote the coordinated development of China’s foreign direct investment and domestic economy.

关 键 词：对外直接投资 经济增长 GDP 灰色关联度 VAR模型 

分 类 号：F832.6[经济管理—金融学] F127