长三角地区联合河长制政策效果模拟与仿真研究  

Modeling and Simulation Research on the Effect of the Joint River Chief System Policy in the Yangtze River Delta Region

作　　者：黄万华[1] 冯燕 高红贵[2] 黄轲[1] HUANG Wanhua;FENG Yan;GAO Honggui;HUANG Ke(School of Management,Wuhan Institute of Technology,Wuhan Hubei 430205,China;School of Economics,Zhongnan University of Economics and Law,Wuhan Hubei 430073,China)

机构地区：[1]武汉工程大学管理学院,湖北武汉430205 [2]中南财经政法大学经济学院,湖北武汉430073

出　　处：《生态经济》2024年第9期187-198,共12页Ecological Economy

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“基于准自然实验的河长制效果评估及政策优化研究”(20BZZ074);湖北省教育厅人文社会科学重点课题“流域治理现代化视域下河长制深化改革研究”(20D050)。

摘　　要：基于DPSIR理论,运用系统动力学的方法,构建长三角地区联合河长制政策仿真模型,从水资源保护、水污染防治、水生态修复、水环境治理等维度,通过模拟与仿真,纵横对比联合河长制的政策效果,分析联合河长制政策2023—2035年的政策效果。研究结果表明:(1)长三角地区联合河长制政策整体效果比较显著,在水资源保护、水污染防治、水生态修复、水环境治理四个方面的政策效果明显;(2)自2023年起的未来十多年,联合河长制政策效果呈减弱趋势,并不具有较强的可持续性,要持续实现联合河长制较好的政策效果,需要进一步深化完善与联合河长制政策相配套的协作机制、动力机制、保障机制、监督机制等政策体系。论文为解决长三角地区流域治理中上下游,干支流、左右岸不协同,优化流域单元与行政单元间的“条”“块”协同机制,推进长三角地区协同大保护与高质量发展具有十分重要的理论意义和实践价值。Based on DPSIR theory and system dynamics method,this paper constructs a simulation model of the policy of the joint river chief system in the Yangtze River Delta region.From the dimensions of water resource protection,water pollution prevention and control,water ecological restoration and water environment governance,this paper makes a vertical and horizontal comparison of the policy effects of the joint river chief system and analyzes the policy effects of the joint river chief system from 2023 to 2035 through modeling and simulation.The results show that:(1)the overall effect of the joint river chief system policy in the Yangtze River Delta region is relatively significant,and the policy effect is obvious in four aspects:water resource protection,water pollution prevention and control,water ecological restoration,and water environment management;(2)In the next decade or so from 2023,the effect of the policy of the joint river chief system shows a weakening trend and does not have strong sustainability.In order to continuously achieve the high policy effect of the joint river chief system,it is necessary to further deepen and improve the policy system such as the cooperation mechanism,the driving mechanism,the guarantee mechanism and the supervision mechanism that are compatible with the policy of the joint river chief system.In order to solve the problem of upstream and downstream river basin governance in the Yangtze River Delta region,the main tributaries and the left and right banks are not coordinated.Optimizing the“block”coordination mechanism between the watershed unit and the administrative unit,and promoting the coordinated protection and high-quality development of the Yangtze River Delta region have very important theoretical significance and practical value.

关 键 词：系统动力学 联合河长制 政策效果 仿真模拟 长三角地区 

分 类 号：X32[环境科学与工程—环境工程] X196