人类活动影响下洪泽湖水位变化特征分析  

Water level change characteristics of Hongze Lake under the influence of human activities

作　　者：刘猛 姚梅[3] 梅海鹏 LIU Meng;YAO Mei;MEI Haipeng(Anhui and Huaihe River Institute of Hydraulic Research(Anhui Provincial Water Conservancy Engineering Quality Testing Center Station),Hefei 230088,China;Key Laboratory of Water Resources in Anhui Province,Bengbu 233000,China;Anhui Provincial Hydrological Bureau,Hefei 230022,China)

机构地区：[1]安徽省(水利部淮河水利委员会)水利科学研究院(安徽省水利工程质量检测中心站),合肥230088 [2]水利水资源安徽省重点实验室,安徽蚌埠233000 [3]安徽省水文局,合肥230022

出　　处：《水科学与工程技术》2024年第4期11-14,共4页Water Sciences and Engineering Technology

摘　　要：研究洪泽湖水位变化规律及动态特征,为流域防洪、供水和生态调度提供科学依据。基于洪泽湖主要水文站长系列实测水位数据,采用曼-肯德尔法分析过去71年洪泽湖水位的变化趋势,判断是否存在水位突变,识别洪泽湖水位周期性变化特征。结果表明:洪泽湖水位只在1954年之前呈下降趋势,在1954—2020年间均呈上升趋势,1968—2020年水位上升趋势非常明显。进一步分析可知,由于工程调控的不断加强,洪泽湖水位总体呈“稳中略升”的态势,年最高水位和年平均水位的波动幅度趋于减小,年内水位变动长期呈“反季相”态势,水位波动频率变高。To study the water level change law and dynamic characteristics of Hongze Lake,and provide scientific basis for flood control,water supply and ecological regulation of the basin.Based on the long series of measured water level data of the main hydrological stations of Hongze Lake,the man Kendall method is used to analyze the change trend of the water level of Hongze Lake in the past 70 years,judge whether there is a sudden change in the water level,and identify the periodic change characteristics of the water level of Hongze Lake.The results show that the water level of Hongze Lake shows a downward trend only before 1954 and an upward trend from 1954 to 2020,and the upward trend from 1968 to 2020 is very obvious.Further analysis shows that the water level of Hongze Lake is generally“stable but slightly rising”due to the continuous strengthening of the project regulation,the fluctuation range of the annual maximum water level and the annual average water level tends to decrease,the water level fluctuation in the year is"anti seasonal"for a long time,and the water level fluctuation frequency becomes higher.

关 键 词：洪泽湖 水位 曼-肯德尔法 变化特征 

分 类 号：P343.3[天文地球—水文科学]