湖南省汨罗市滑坡风险评价  

Landslide risk assessment in Miluo City of Hunan Province

作　　者：钟林君 王继祥 赵双林 代聪 张帅[2] ZHONG Linjun;WANG Jixiang;ZHAO Shuanglin;DAI Cong;ZHANG Shuai(Hunan Province Geological Disaster Survey and Monitoring Institute,Hunan Changsha 410000,China;MOE Key Laboratory of Soft Soils and Geo-Environmental Engineering,Zhejiang University,Zhejiang Hangzhou 310030,China)

机构地区：[1]湖南省地质灾害调查监测所,湖南长沙410000 [2]浙江大学软土与岩土环境工程教育部重点实验室,浙江杭州310030

出　　处：《中国地质调查》2024年第4期114-123,共10页Geological Survey of China

基　　金：湖南省科学技术厅项目“深大基坑中心岛顺逆工法(编号:2012SK3280)”资助。

摘　　要：湖南省汨罗市地形多样复杂、地貌丰富、人类活动频繁,滑坡频发,应及时开展滑坡风险评价,并提出相应风险管控措施。首先,收集汨罗市最新滑坡数据,综合考虑高程、坡度、坡面等评价因子,结合确定性系数(certainty factors,CF)模型和神经网络多层感知机(multi-layer perceptron,MLP)方法对汨罗市滑坡易发性进行评价;其次,考虑降雨工况对汨罗市滑坡危险性进行评价;然后,收集汨罗市建筑物、道路及滑坡威胁人口分布数据对汨罗市滑坡易损性进行评价;最后,采用矩阵等级划分法获取汨罗市滑坡风险评价结果并进行了滑坡风险管控探讨。结果表明:川山坪镇西部及东部地区、弼时镇西部及东部地区,以及三江镇东部地区和长乐镇东部地区为滑坡高风险区,面积约为239.56 km 2,覆盖103个滑坡点,占滑坡总个数的72.54%。滑坡风险管控需进行“点控”和“面控”的有效结合,开展“人防+技防”的有效措施。研究成果有助于开展科学合理的防灾减灾和灾后救援工作,对于提高社会安全稳定和经济发展具有重要的现实意义。Miluo City of Hunan Province features diverse and complex topography,rich landforms,and frequent human activities,resulting in a relatively high incidence of landslides.In order to prevent the casualties caused by landslides,the authors conducted landslide risk assessment and proposed corresponding risk control measures.Firstly,the latest landslide data for Miluo City were collected,and susceptibility of landslides in Miluo City was assessed using certainty factors and a neural network multi-layer perceptron approach,on the basis of factors such as elevation,slope,and face of slope.Then,the landslide hazard under rainfall conditions was evaluated.And the data of buildings,roads,and the population distribution threatened by landslide were collected to assess the landslides vulnerability in Miluo City.Finally,landslide risk assessments results were obtained through matrix degree division and risk control strategies were discussed.The results indicated that the western and eastern part of Chuanshanping Town,the western and eastern part of Bishi Town,the eastern part of Sanjiang Town and the eastern part of Changle Town were in high risk of landslides.The areas cover approximately 239.56 km 2 and encompassed 103 landslides,accounting for 72.54%of the total landslides.Effective landslide risk control requires a combination of point control and area control,implementing both people-oriented and technical preventive measures.The research findings could contribute to the scientific and rational implementation of disaster prevention,reduction,and post-disaster rescue efforts,holding significant practical importance in enhancing social safety,stability,and economic development.

关 键 词：滑坡 危险性评价 易损性评价 风险评价 汨罗市 

分 类 号：P694[天文地球—地质学]