技术进步能有效促进粮食安全与农民增收双目标实现吗?——来自全国省级面板数据的经验证据  

Can Technological Advances Effectively Contribute to the Twin Goals of Food Security and Farmers'Incomes?——The Empirical Evidence From the Provincial Panel Data

作　　者：马晓河[1] 周婉冰 MA Xiao-he;ZHOU Wan-bing

机构地区：[1]中国宏观经济研究院 [2]中国社会科学院大学经济学院

出　　处：《农村金融研究》2024年第7期3-15,共13页Rural Finance Research

基　　金：清华大学中国农村研究院研究课题“新时期粮食安全与农民收入问题研究”(编号:CIRS2023-1)的研究成果。

摘　　要：技术进步能显著提高粮食安全与农民增收双目标实现的有效性。论文基于2002—2022年全国31省的面板数据,通过耦合协调度模型、DEA-Malmquist指数模型及面板数据双向固定效应模型等进行实证分析。研究表明:技术进步能明显提高粮食安全与农民收入一致性水平,其中,技术变化对粮食安全与农民收入一致性水平的影响更为显著,该结论在经过一系列稳健性检验后依旧成立。在经济发展水平相对落后的西部地区以及地形更为崎岖的丘陵地区,技术进步对粮食安全与农民收入一致性水平的促进作用更强。此外,技术进步可以通过促进农业适度经营规模水平提升进而间接作用于粮食安全与农民增收双目标的实现。以此为基础,论文提出了相应的政策建议,以充分发挥技术进步对粮食安全与农民增收双目标实现的促进作用。Technological progress can significantly improve the effectiveness of achieving the twin objectives of food security and farmers'income.Based on the panel data of 31 provinces in China from 2002 to 2022,this paper carries out empirical analysis through coupled coordination degree model,DEA-Malmquist index model and two-way fixed effect model of panel data.The study shows that technological progress can significantly improve the level of consistency between food security and farmers'income,in which the effect of technological change on the level of consistency between food security and farmers'income is more significant,and this conclusion still holds after a series of robustness tests.The effect of technological progress on the consistency of food security and farmers'incomes is more significant in the western region,where the level of economic development is relatively backward,and in the hilly region,where the terrain is more rugged.In addition,technological progress can indirectly contribute to the realization of the dual objectives of food security and farmers income by promoting the improvement of the level of appropriate scale of agriculture.On this basis,this paper puts forward corresponding policy recommendations to give full play to the role of technological progress in promoting the dual objectives of food security and farmers'income.

关 键 词：技术进步 粮食安全与农民增收 耦合协调度 适度规模经营 

分 类 号：F307.1[经济管理—产业经济]