城乡融合背景下村镇建设用地“扩张-消失”多情景模拟——以洛阳市为例  

Multi-scenario Simulation of“Expansion-disappearance”of Village and Town Construction Land in the Context of Urban-rural Integration——A Case Study of Luoyang City

作　　者：张祚 江驭鲲 何青松 王哲 ZHANG Zuo;JIANG Yukun;HE Qingsong;WANG Zhe(School of Public Administration,Central China Normal University,Wuhan 430079,China;College of Public Administration,Huazhong University of Science and Technology,Wuhan 430074,China)

机构地区：[1]华中师范大学公共管理学院,湖北武汉430079 [2]华中科技大学公共管理学院,湖北武汉430074

出　　处：《中国土地科学》2024年第7期96-108,共13页China Land Science

基　　金：国家自然科学项目(72174071,42371424);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(CCNU24JC039);湖北省自然科学基金(2023AFB630)。

摘　　要：研究目的:从当前村镇建设用地“既拆又建”现象出发,聚焦城乡融合背景下村镇建设格局演变规律,以洛阳市为例,开展2020-2030年村镇建设用地“扩张—消失”多情景模拟研究,为大城市村镇建设用地差别化管理提供决策依据。研究方法:PLUS模型、形态学空间格局分析、多情景设定。研究结果:(1)区位条件因素在村镇建设用地“扩张—消失”中起基础性作用,距离耕地、高速公路的远近对扩张与消失变化的影响较大,贡献度均超过16%。(2)2020-2030年洛阳市村镇建设用地扩张与消失规模以及格局差异明显。在规模上“扩张”与“消失”面积比例约为2∶1;在格局上“扩张”斑块类型以边缘、支线及孤岛为主,“消失”斑块类型则以核心区和边缘占优。(3)4种情景下研究区村镇建设用地均表现为大规模零碎式扩张与小规模集中式收缩。其中,耕地保护情景中孤岛占比最少(9.93%),空间上连通性和整体性最优,未来应进一步充分考虑耕地保护情景。研究结论:亟需秉持村镇建设用地以优化存量换取增量的理念,均衡协调扩张和消失的规模、形态及其综合效益,针对主要驱动因素实施差别化管理,实施“一村一策”缓解村镇建设用地低效利用困境。The purpose of this study is to investigate the current phenomenon of“simultaneous demolition and reconstruction”of village and town construction land,by focusing on the evolution patterns of construction layouts in the context of urban-rural integration and employing Luoyang City as a case study to conduct multi-scenario simulations of“expansion-disappearance”of construction land from 2020 to 2030,to provide decision-making support for the differentiated management of village and town construction land in of large cities.The research methods include PLUS model,morphological spatial pattern analysis and multi-scenario design.The research results show that:1)location plays a foundational role in the“expansion-disappearance”of village and town construction land.The proximity to cultivated land and highways significantly influences the changes in expansion and disappearance,with both factors contributing more than 16%.2)From 2020 to 2030,significant differences exist in the scale and spatial pattern of expansion and disappearance of village and town construction land in Luoyang City.In terms of scale,the ratio of“expansion”to“disappearance”areas is approximately 2∶1;In terms of pattern,“expansion”primarily features edge,branch and islet patches,while“disappearance”is dominated by core and edge patches.3)Under four scenarios,village and town construction land in the study area exhibits large-scale fragmented expansion and small-scale concentrated shrinkage.Among them,the farmland protection scenario has the lowest proportion of islets(9.93%),and offers the best spatial connectivity and integrity.The farmland protection scenario should be fully considered for future planning.In conclusion,it is imperative to adopt the concept of optimizing existing village and town construction land for new development,balancing the scale,morphology and comprehensive benefits of“expansion”and“disappearance”,while implementing differentiated management based on primary driving factors and adopting

关 键 词：村镇建设用地 形态学空间格局分析 多情景模拟 城乡融合 洛阳市 

分 类 号：F301.2[经济管理—产业经济]