基于粮食安全视角的南方冬季耕地资源利用潜力空间布局及优化——以鄱阳湖平原为例  

Spatial Distribution and Optimization of Cultivated Land Use Potential in Winter of Southern China from the Perspective of Food Security:A Case Study of Poyang Lake Plain

作　　者：申格 刘航 余强毅[2] 吴绍华 祝锦霞 吴文斌[2] SHEN Ge;LIU Hang;YU Qiangyi;WU Shaohua;ZHU Jinxia;WU Wenbin(School of Public Administration,Zhejiang University of Finance and Economics,Hangzhou 310018,China;State Key Laboratory of Efficient Utilization of Arid and Semi-arid Arable Land/Key Laboratory of Agricultural Remote Sensing,Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs/Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning,Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Beijing 100081,China;Dongfang College,Zhejiang University of Finance and Economics,Jiaxing 314408,China)

机构地区：[1]浙江财经大学公共管理学院,浙江杭州310018 [2]北方干旱半干旱耕地高效利用全国重点实验室/农业农村部农业遥感重点实验室/中国农业科学院农业资源与农业区划研究所,北京100081 [3]浙江财经大学东方学院,浙江嘉兴314408

出　　处：《中国土地科学》2024年第7期133-144,共12页China Land Science

基　　金：浙江省自然科学基金(LQ23D010001);国家自然科学基金(42171271)。

摘　　要：研究目的:基于新一轮千亿斤粮食产能提升行动的背景,分析冬季耕地资源利用现状,模拟其兼并作物类型和种植窗口的利用潜力空间布局,评估对区域粮食的增产效应,并探究空间优化方案。研究方法:EcoCrop模型、全球农业生态区划(GAEZ)模型、文献归纳法等。研究结果:(1)鄱阳湖平原近30年冬季作物种植面积比例平均为50%左右,以2007年为突变年份呈显著减小趋势。(2)冬季耕地资源对提高耕地利用效率和提升粮食产量均具有较大潜力。研究区97%耕地适合冬种,完全利用可实现约440万~490万t的产量提升,同时促使水稻增产约42.2万t。(3)冬种作物在不同种植窗口下的分布和产量均存在空间差异,可细化作物种植时空分异性的布局特征,实现协同高适宜性和高产量的空间优化。研究结论:本文提出的兼并作物类型和种植窗口的冬季耕地资源利用潜力空间布局和优化方案,对实际农业生产更具指导价值,可为区域耕地集约化管理和利用、种植结构优化和调整提供路径选择和决策建议。The purpose of this study is to explore the spatial distribution and optimization characteristics of cultivated land use potential in winter in the context of the new round of grain production capacity improvement action.The research methods include the EcoCrop model,GAEZ model and literature review.The research results showed that:1)the average proportion of crop planting area in winter in the study area is about 50%in recent 30 years,and show a significant decreasing trend in 2007 as a mutation year.2)The cultivated land resources have great potential to improve the use efficiency in winter and increase grain yield.97%of cultivated land in the study area is suitable for winter seed,which can achieve a total yield increase of about 4.4 million tons to 4.9 million tons and can indirectly increase rice production by about 0.42 million tons.3)There are obvious spatial differences in the distribution and yield of winter rape and Chinese milk vetch under different potential winter planting windows,which further refines the spatial and temporal characteristics of crop planting.The optimization scheme combining crop type and planting window realizes the synergy of high spatial suitability and grain yield.In conclusion,this study proposes the spatial distribution characteristics and optimization plan of cultivated land use in winter with more guiding value for agricultural production.It could provide technical support and path selection for intensive management and utilization of regional cultivated land,and optimization and adjustment of planting structure.

关 键 词：作物适宜性 空间布局 EcoCrop模型 冬闲田 粮食安全 

分 类 号：F301.2[经济管理—产业经济]