配电网理论线损概率分布函数的计算与分析  

Computation and Analysis of Theoretic Line Loss Probability Distribution Function of Distribution Network

作　　者：吴涵[1] 袁越[1] 侯语涵 郝思鹏[2] 张仰飞[2] WU Han;YUAN Yue;HOU Yuhan;HAO Sipeng;ZHANG Yangfei(School of Electrical and Power Engineering,Hohai University,Nanjing 211100,Jiangsu Province,China;Nanjing Institute of Technology,Nanjing 211167,Jiangsu Province,China)

机构地区：[1]河海大学电气与电力工程学院,江苏省南京市211100 [2]南京工程学院,江苏省南京市211167

出　　处：《中国电机工程学报》2024年第16期6444-6454,I0013,共12页PROCEEDINGS OF THE CHINESE SOCIETY FOR ELECTRICAL ENGINEERING

基　　金：江苏省高等学校基础科学(自然科学)研究项目(22KJD470003)。

摘　　要：线损是衡量配电系统节能减排和运行效率的重要指标。随着“双碳”目标的提出,大量随机性和间歇性的可再生能源接入配电网,给配电网的线损计算带来新的挑战。该文从概率角度出发,在基于高斯混合模型的节点注入电流基础上,结合广义非中心卡方分布推导了任意电流分布下配电网理论线损概率分布的解析表达式,并首次给出配电网理论线损的均值、方差和矩生成函数的准确表达式。考虑到理论线损概率分布难以直接计算,提出一种基于Raphaeli级数的线损概率密度函数和累积概率分布函数的数值计算方法。基于IEEE 33节点系统的算例分析表明,提出的线损计算公式能够准确、高效地计算线损均值和概率分布函数。Line loss is an important indicator to measure emission reduction and operation efficiency of distribution systems.To achieve carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals,a large number of stochastic and intermittent renewables are connected to the distribution network,which brings new challenges to the calculation of distribution network line loss.In this paper,from the perspective of probability,the distribution network line loss probability distribution expression is derived based on generalized non-central chi-square distribution and the Gaussian mixture model under arbitrary current distribution.On this basis,the expressions of mean,variance and moment generating functions of line loss are given,and a numerical expression of line loss probability density function and cumulative probability distribution function based on Raphaeli series is proposed.The case study on the IEEE 33 bus system verifies the high accuracy and efficiency of the proposed line loss probability distribution calculation method.

关 键 词：线损 配电网 概率分布 

分 类 号：TM75[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]