对流允许尺度区域气候模拟和未来预估的最新进展  

New Advances in Convection-Permitting Regional Climate Simulation and Future Climate Projection

作　　者：熊雅婷 董广涛 XIONG Yating;DONG Guangtao(Key Laboratory of Cities’Mitigation and Adaptation to Climate Change in Shanghai,China Meteorological Administration,Shanghai 200030,China;Shanghai Climate Center,Shanghai 200030,China)

机构地区：[1]中国气象局上海城市气候变化应对重点开放实验室,上海200030 [2]上海市气候中心,上海200030

出　　处：《地球科学进展》2024年第6期576-588,共13页Advances in Earth Science

基　　金：国家重点研发计划政府间国际科技创新合作专项(编号:2019YFE0124800);上海市气象局科技研发项目(编号:QM202408);中国气象局青年创新团队(编号:CMA2024QN14)资助。

摘　　要：伴随着近年来高性能计算资源的快速提高,模式的水平分辨率逐渐精细化。对流允许尺度(分辨率为4 km及以上)区域气候模式已成为当前区域气候模式发展和应用的主要方向之一。通过文献调研对对流允许尺度区域气候模式的4种建模方式、相比于传统分辨率区域气候模式的增值能力以及未来气候预估进行了回顾和总结。对流允许尺度区域气候模式无需使用对流参数化方案就可以显式表示深对流过程,在一定程度上改善了模式对复杂地形和地表强迫的表现能力。对流允许尺度区域气候模式在模拟降水特征(降水日变化、持续时间、次日尺度降水强度和短时强降水强度)、积雪特征(雪深和覆盖率)、中尺度对流系统特征(数量和周期)、热带气旋特征(强度、路径)以及城市热岛形态等方面存在显著增值能力。目前,对流允许尺度区域气候模式仍然存在诸多挑战和不确定性,今后可利用更高分辨率数据集、改进的云微物理过程和边界层参数化方案以及更高性能的计算资源,进一步提高对流允许尺度区域气候模拟和应用能力。With rapid improvements in high-performance computational resources,the horizontal resolution of models has gradually been refined.Convection-Permitting(≤4 km)Models(CPMs)have become one of the main directions in the development and application of regional climate models.This study reviewed four CPM methods,the added value of CPMs compared to regional climate models with traditional resolution,and future climate projections based on a comprehensive literature review.CPMs can explicitly represent deep convection processes without using convective parameterization schemes,which significantly improves their ability to represent complex topographies and surface forcing.CPMs have added value in simulating the characteristics of precipitation(precipitation diurnal cycle,duration,precipitation intensity at sub-daily scale,and intensity of extreme precipitation with short duration),snow(snow depth and coverage),mesoscale convective systems(number and duration),tropical cyclones(intensity and track),urban heat island patterns,and the effects of urbanization on precipitation.Several challenges and uncertainties remain in CPMs,but in the future,higher-resolution datasets,improved cloud microphysical processes,boundary layer parameterization schemes,and higher-performance computational resources can be used to further improve the ability of convection,permitting regional climate simulation and application.

关 键 词：对流允许尺度模式 区域气候模拟 增值 未来气候预估 

分 类 号：P435[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]