2015-2022年深圳市龙岗区HIV/AIDS新发现病例流行趋势特征和灰色模型定量预测  

Epidemic characteristics and grey model quantitative prediction of newly discovered HIV/AIDS cases in Longgang District,Shenzhen,2015-2022

作　　者：孙春云[1] 陈小燕[1] 龙清平[1] 叶伟雄[1] SUN Chunyun;CHEN Xiaoyan;LONG Qingping;YE Weixiong(Longgang District Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Shenzhen 518172,Guangdong,China)

机构地区：[1]广东省深圳市龙岗区疾病预防控制中心,广东深圳518172

出　　处：《右江民族医学院学报》2024年第4期480-485,507,共7页Journal of Youjiang Medical University for Nationalities

基　　金：深圳市龙岗区科技创新局科研项目(LGWJ2021-129)。

摘　　要：目的探讨HIV感染者/AIDS患者(HIV/AIDS)新发现病例流行特征和判定趋势、定量预测,为科学防控提供参考依据。方法对深圳市龙岗区2015—2022年新发现HIV/AIDS病例用描述流行病学方法进行特征分析,用缓冲算子建立灰色均值GM(1,1)模型进行趋势判定和病例数预测。结果2015—2022年龙岗区新发现HIV/AIDS病例共2722例(1611/1111),年均报告病例数(340±25)例。病例以男性(92.43%)、20~<40岁(71.49%)、未婚(63.67%)、高中及以上文化水平(68.59%)、商业服务和家务及待业(62.12%)、市外户籍(80.79%)病例为主,男男同性传播(68.41%)为主要感染途径。50岁以下以男男性传播为主,50岁以上以异性传播为主。医疗机构检测(56.61%)和咨询检测(25.24%)为主要发现方式。疫情趋势为:40~50岁(χ^(2)_(趋势)=4.854,P<0.05)和>50岁(χ^(2)_(趋势)=25.241,P<0.001)病例组分布呈增长趋势;家务及待业病例组分布呈增长趋势(χ^(2)_(趋势)=6.533,P<0.05);医疗机构检测中其他就诊者检测分布呈增长趋势(χ^(2)_(趋势)=20.558,P<0.001)和咨询检测分布呈下降趋势(χ^(2)_(趋势)=10.562,P<0.05);新发现病例中AIDS构成比呈增长趋势(χ^(2)_(趋势)=8.382,P<0.05);青、中、老年男性病例随着年龄的增加,有同性传播占比下降、异性传播占比上升趋势(χ^(2)_(趋势)=252.478,P<0.001);男性未婚、离异或丧偶、已婚或有配偶组病例随着配偶的存在呈度同性传播占比下降、异性传播上升的趋势(χ^(2)_(趋势)=155.454,P<0.001)。弱化算子GM(1,1)灰色模型精度良好,显示近年疫情趋势平稳(发展系数<0.01),预测2023年病例数精度>95%,可用于HIV/AIDS新发现病例数预测。结论龙岗区AIDS疫情态势平稳,但有中老年病例增加的趋势,病例发展到AIDS阶段因症状就诊发现的比例有增加趋势,应继续推行扩大检测策略及早发现病例,深入开展高危、重点人群综合干预防治措施,多渠道(尤其是在学校教育工作中Objective To explore the epidemic characteristics,determination trend and quantitative prediction of newly discovered cases of HIV/AIDS in order to provide reference for scientific prevention and control.Methods A descriptive epidemiological method was used to analyze the characteristics of newly discovered AIDS cases in Longgang District,Shenzhen from 2015 to 2022,and a grey mean GM(1,1)model was established with buffer operators to determine the trend and predict the number of cases.Results From 2015 to 2022,a total of 2722(1611/1111)new HIV/AIDS cases were identified in Longgang District,with an average annual reported number of(340±25)cases.The majority of cases were male(92.43%),aged 20~<40 years(71.49%),unmarried(63.67%),with high school education or above(68.59%),engaged in commercial service,housework,or unemployed(62.12%),and household registration outside the city(80.79%).Male-to-male sexual transmission(68.41%)was the primary route of infection.Under the age of 50,male-to-male transmission predominated,while heterosexual transmission was more common above age 50.Medical institution detection(56.61%)and counseling detection(25.24%)were the main detection methods.The epidemic trends were as follows:there was an increasing trend in the distribution of cases for both 40 and 50 years old(χ^(2)_(trend)=4.854,P<0.05)and>50 years old(χ^(2)_(trend)=25.241,P<0.001);The distribution of housework and unemployment cases showed an increasing trend(χ^(2)_(trend)=6.533,P<0.05).The detection distribution of other patients in medical institutions showed an increasing trend(χ^(2)_(trend)=20.558,P<0.001)and the distribution of counseling tests showed a decreasing trend(χ^(2)_(trend)=10.562,P<0.05).The proportion of AIDS in newly discovered cases showed an increasing trend(χ^(2)_(trend)=8.382,P<0.05).With the increase of age in males,the proportion of same-sex transmission decreased while heterosexual transmission increased(χ^(2)_(trend)=252.478,P<0.001).In unmarried,divorced or widowed men,married or with spouses,

关 键 词：获得性免疫缺陷综合征 人类免疫缺陷病毒 流行特征 趋势 灰色预测 

分 类 号：R512.91[医药卫生—内科学]