云模型在高后果区管道风险评价的应用  

Application of Cloud Model in Pipeline Risk Assessment in High-consequence Area

作　　者：耿向帅 GENG Xiangshuai(No.4 Oil Production Plant of Daqing Oilfield Co.,Ltd.)

机构地区：[1]大庆油田有限责任公司第四采油厂

出　　处：《油气田地面工程》2024年第8期39-45,51,共8页Oil-Gas Field Surface Engineering

摘　　要：高后果区管道的识别和风险评价是完整性管理的重要环节,为提高这部分管道的风险管控水平,提出了一种基于综合权重-多维云模型的风险评价方法。采用改进AHP法和熵权法确定指标的主、客观权重,并基于最小鉴别原理对权重进行柔化;构造多维云模型的数字特征,利用正向云发生器生成风险云图和隶属度;结合综合权重和单一指标隶属度,确定不同风险等级下的综合隶属度,进而获取待评价管道的风险等级。研究结果表明:地面活动程度、人为破坏、管内介质腐蚀速率的权重比例较大,是导致高后果区管道失效的主控因素;与未确知测度、模糊层次分析法和一维云模型相比,多维云模型的评价结果与现场实际的吻合性更高,可以准确、快速地判断高后果区管道风险水平。The identification and risk assessment of pipelines in high consequence areas are important links of integrity management.To improve the risk management level of these pipelines,a risk assess-ment method based on comprehensive weights-multi-dimensional cloud model is proposed.Firstly,the improved AHP method and entropy weight method are used to determine the main and objective weights of indicators,and the weights are softened based on the principle of minimum discrimination.Then,the digital features of the multi-dimensional cloud model are constructed,and the risk cloud map and membership degree are generated by the forward cloud generator.Finally,combined with the comprehensive weight and membership degree of a single indicator,the comprehensive membership degree under different risk levels is determined,and then the risk level of the pipeline to be evaluated is obtained.The results show that the weight ratio of ground activity,man-made damage,and medium corrosion rate in pipes is large,and these factors are the main factors leading to pipeline failure in high consequence areas.Compared with unascertained measure,fuzzy analytic hierarchy process(AHP),and one-dimensional cloud model,the evaluation results of multi-dimensional cloud model have bet-ter agreement with the field practice,and can accurately and quickly judge the pipeline risk level in high-consequence areas.

关 键 词：高后果区 管道 多维云 综合权重 改进AHP 云发生器 

分 类 号：TE973[石油与天然气工程—石油机械设备]