多阶段任务装备体系作战效能评估及灵敏度分析  

Operational effectiveness evaluation and sensitivity analysis of multi-stage mission equipment system

作　　者：宗飞 王洋洋 王博 周文雅[2] 刘君[2] ZONG Fei;WANG Yangyang;WANG Bo;ZHOU Wenya;LIU Jun(Qian Xuesen Space Technology Laboratory,China Academy of Space Technology,Beijing 100094,China;School of Aeronautics and Astronautics,Dalian University of Technology,Dalian 116024,China)

机构地区：[1]中国空间技术研究院钱学森空间技术实验室,北京100094 [2]大连理工大学航空航天学院,辽宁大连116024

出　　处：《兵器装备工程学报》2024年第8期87-94,共8页Journal of Ordnance Equipment Engineering

摘　　要：信息化战争背景下,战场形式瞬息万变,战场装备体系复杂程度越来越高,仅仅对装备体系或单装备的作战效能进行评估已无法满足战场效益的稳定性。为此,从装备体系作战使命的阶段任务出发,基于作战环理论,提出了便于掌控战场局势发展的多阶段任务装备体系作战效能评估模型及评估指标的灵敏度分析方法。首先,基于阶段任务分析了各层级指标与上级能力指标之间的关系,确定了装备体系作战效能的指标聚合模型;其次,通过对评估指标改变相应比例的扰动量,考察了装备体系作战效能评估结果相对于评估指标改变量的变化情况,确定了各评估指标对于装备体系作战效能的敏感程度大小并排序。最后,以某次对抗演习为例,应用本文中所提方法,分析了各评估指标相对于装备体系作战效能的敏感程度,并通过与各位专家的灵敏度均值对比,验证了本文中所提方法的可行性和有效性,为指挥人员掌控战场局势提供辅助指导。Under the background of information-based war,battlefield forms are changing rapidly,and battlefield equipment system is becoming more and more complex.It is no longer enough to evaluate the combat effectiveness of equipment system or single equipment.Therefore,based on the operational ring theory,this paper puts forward a multi-stage operational effectiveness evaluation model of equipment system and a sensitivity analysis method of evaluation index,which is convenient to control the development of battlefield situation.Firstly,based on the phase task,the relationship between each level index and the superior ability index is analyzed,and the index aggregation model of the combat effectiveness of the equipment system is determined.Secondly,the change of the evaluation result of the combat effectiveness of the equipment system relative to the change of the evaluation index was investigated by changing the corresponding proportion of the disturbance to the evaluation index,and the sensitivity degree of each evaluation index to the combat effectiveness of the equipment system was determined and ranked.Finally,taking a confrontation exercise as an example,the method proposed in this paper is applied to analyze the sensitivity of each evaluation index relative to the combat effectiveness of the equipment system,and the feasibility and effectiveness of the method proposed in this paper are verified by comparing the sensitivity average with that of other experts,so as to provide auxiliary guidance for commanders to control the battlefield situation.

关 键 词：作战环 作战效能 阶段任务 灵敏度 

分 类 号：E837[军事—战术学]