云降水和人工影响天气暖云催化数值模式研发与应用进展  

Development and Application of the Warm Cloud Seeding Models in Weather Modification

作　　者：沈淑婧 史月琴[1] 刘卫国[1] 花少烽 孙晶[1] SHEN Shujing;SHI Yueqin;LIU Weiguo;HUA Shaofeng;SUN Jing(China Meteorological Administration Weather Modification Centre,China Meteorological Administration Cloud-Precipitation Physics and Weather Modification Key Laboratory(CPML),Beijing 100081,China)

机构地区：[1]中国气象局人工影响天气中心,中国气象局云降水物理与人工影响天气重点开放实验室,北京100081

出　　处：《地球科学进展》2024年第7期671-684,共14页Advances in Earth Science

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(编号:2023YFC3007605);国家自然科学基金项目(编号:U234220034);中国气象局云降水物理与人工影响天气重点开放实验室创新基金项目(编号:2023CPML-C03)资助。

摘　　要：暖性云系是主要的降水云系之一,也是开展人工影响天气作业的重要对象,使用催化数值模式进行机理研究、催化预估和效果评估,将为人工影响天气作业提供关键依据和科学指导。针对半个多世纪以来的暖云催化数值模式发展,在系统介绍和对比基于总体积水、分档、拉格朗日超级粒子及混合微物理方案的吸湿性催化模式研发进展的基础上,全面阐述了系列模式围绕播撒型盐粉及燃烧型焰剂在人工增雨、消雾、消减雨、实际催化效果评估以及暖云催化机理研究方面的应用,剖析了当前研究中存在的问题和不足,并对未来研发和应用重点方向进行展望。将对深入发展暖云催化数值模式并基于其开展云降水机理研究和我国人工影响天气业务应用具有重要的指导意义。Warm clouds are predominant cloud types that form precipitation as well as the important objects for weather modification operations.Mechanistic research,seeding estimation,and effect evaluation based on cloud seeding models provide a key basis and scientific guidance for weather modification operations.In numerical models for warm cloud seeding over the past half-century,this study systematically and respectively introduces and compares the development progress of various hygroscopic seeding models based on Bulk,Bin,Particle-based Lagrangian and Hybrid microphysics schemes.A comprehensive examination was provided for the application of a series of models,focusing on salt powders and flares in artificial precipitation enhancement,defogging,precipitation reduction,actual seeding effect evaluation,and mechanism research.It further summarizes the current scientific consensus and existing problems and finally looks forward to the key directions of future scientific research.This will have important guiding significance for the in-depth development of warm cloud seeding numerical models,the study of precipitation enhancement mechanisms,and the application of weather modification operations.

关 键 词：暖云催化 数值模式 微物理方案 人工影响天气 

分 类 号：P48[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]