丰收的嘉奖:财政激励与粮食增产  

The Reward of Bumper Harvests:Fiscal Incentives and Grain Production Growth

作　　者：罗斯炫 张俊飚 LUO Sixuan;ZHANG Junbiao

机构地区：[1]湖南农业大学经济学院 [2]华中农业大学农业绿色低碳发展实验室 [3]浙江农林大学浙江省乡村振兴研究院 [4]浙江农林大学经济管理学院

出　　处：《中国农村经济》2024年第8期27-46,共20页Chinese Rural Economy

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目“基于经济高质量发展的农业自然资源高效利用研究”(编号:20AZD091);浙江农林大学科研发展基金人才启动项目“中国农业绿色低碳发展研究”(编号:2023FR015)的支持。

摘　　要：常规产粮大县奖励政策是中央政府为了调动地方政府粮食生产积极性、缓解产粮大县财政困难的重要举措,但其粮食增产效果及作用机制尚未明晰。本文基于群聚分析法,利用奖励入围条件所形成的制度断层点,估计了该政策实施对粮食生产的影响。结果表明:2005-2020年,该政策实施产生了明显的群聚现象,即县域粮食产量频数分布在奖励入围断点20万吨处呈现左侧缺失与右侧群聚。该政策实施促使操纵区间内县域粮食单产平均提高5.0%,且提高了复种指数与农业机械化水平。财政收支缺口大、产业结构高级化程度低的县和贫困县受财政激励更强,表现出更高的粮食增产成效。进一步,该政策还提高了县级层面的农业全要素生产率和农业劳动生产率。经计算,该政策实施的预计收益下限值远大于其预计成本上限值,具有较高的经济效益。本文研究有助于认识县级政府对粮食生产财政转移支付的反应程度、财政激励的作用区间以及财政转移支付对粮食安全的贡献,为中央政府进一步优化和创新粮食生产财政转移支付制度,充分发挥财政助力粮食安全重要职能提供来自微观层面的经验证据。The regular grain-producing county reward policy is an important initiative by the central govermment to motivate local govermments to be more proactive in grain production and to alleviate the financial difficulties of the grain-producing counties.However,the effectiveness of grain production and its mechanism of action are not yet clear Based on the cluster analysis method,this paper uses the notched point formed by the reward entry conditions to estimate the impact of the policy implementation on grain production.From 2005 to 2020,the implementation of this policy produces an explicit bunching effect,ie.,the distribution of the number of counties at the discontinuity of 200,000 tons exhibits a lef-hand side missing and right-hand side bunching.The policy leads to an average increase of 5.0%in county grain yield in the manipulation interval,and improves the multiple-crop index and the level of agricultural mechanization.Counties with large gaps of fiscal revenue and expenditure,low levels of industrial structure optimization,as well as poor counties are more strongly motivated by fiscal incentives,and show higher grain increase effects.Furthermore,the policy has also significantly increased the county's agricultural total factor productivity and agricultural labor productivity.The estimated minimum benefit value of the policy implementation is much greater than the maximum expected cost value,which has a high economic benefit.In conclusion,this paper helps to understand the degree of response of county-level govermments to fiscal transfer payments for grain production,the range of action of fiscal incentives,and the contribution of fiscal transfer payments to food security.It provides micro-level empirical evidence for the central government to further optimize and innovate the fiscal transfer system,and to give full play to the critical function of fiscal incentives for grain security.

关 键 词：常规产粮大县奖励政策 财政激励 财政转移支付 粮食安全 群聚分析 

分 类 号：F812[经济管理—财政学] F326.11