新一轮千亿斤粮食产能提升行动的品种推进层次与重点措施  

Priority and Measures of Crop Cultivation for a New Round of Grain Production Capacity Improvement

作　　者：刘慧[1] 赵一夫[1] LIU Hui;ZHAO Yifu(Institute of Agricultural Economics and Development,Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Beijing 100081)

机构地区：[1]中国农业科学院农业经济与发展研究所,北京100081

出　　处：《经济纵横》2024年第7期85-94,共10页Economic Review Journal

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“耕地-技术-政策融合视角的‘两藏’战略研究”(编号:21ZDA056);中国农业科学院科技创新工程项目(编号:10-IAED-06-2024)的成果。

摘　　要：在粮食进口量屡创新高、国内粮食供需长期处于紧平衡状态及全球粮食市场不确定性增加的背景下,我国启动实施了新一轮千亿斤粮食产能提升行动。与第一轮千亿斤粮食产能提升目标的提前实现更多地依靠增加播种面积等物质要素投入不同,新一轮千亿斤粮食产能提升目标的实现则需依靠科技发展和政策推动来提高单产水平。基于对近期我国主要粮油品种及其下游产品国内产需形势、单产提高潜力的分析,有限资源约束下玉米、大豆、油菜籽应是第一层次推进的品种,随后是小麦、稻谷。面对新一轮千亿斤粮食产能提升面临的挑战,并借鉴第一轮的成功经验,需要从提高农业综合生产能力和调动农民种粮及地方抓粮的积极性两方面综合施策以全方位夯实粮食安全根基。重点措施包括推广良种、良田、良机、良法、良制的“五良”融合方案,将专家产量转化为农民产量、典型产量转化为大田产量;同时,推广大豆玉米带状复合种植,开发利用盐碱地和冬闲田,挖掘大豆、油菜在非传统耕地上增加播种面积的潜力。China has taken actions to achieve a new round of grain production capacity improvement upon a new high grain imports record,a long-term tight balance between domestic grain supply and demand,and in-creasing uncertainty in the global grain market.Unlike the first round of grain production capacity improve-ment,which relies mainly on increasing material inputs such as sowing area,the new round of grain production capacity improvement requires increasing the yield per unit by technological development and policy support.This study analyzes the situations of grain production and demand and the potential for increasing the yields per unit of major grain and oil crop species and their downstream products in China recently.It is suggested that maize,soybean,and oilseed rape should be the priorities of crop cultivation under limited resource con-straints,followed by wheat and rice.According to the experience from the first round,the new round of grain production capacity improvement should adopt comprehensive measures from two aspects to consolidate the foundation of food security in all aspects.The first is to improve the comprehensive agricultural production ca-pacity,and the second is to mobilize the enthusiasm of farmers to cultivate grain crops and local governments to encourage grain production.A key measure is promoting the integration of elite varieties,fertile farmland,good opportunities,efficient methods,and sound systems,which facilitates the conversion of theoretical yields into practical yields and laboratory yields into field yields.In addition,efforts should be made to promote the intercropping of soybean and maize,develop and utilize saline-alkaline land and winter fallow fields,and ex-plore the potential of increasing the planting areas of soybean and oilseed rape in non-conventional farmland.

关 键 词：粮食产能提升 品种层次 产需形势 单产潜力 面积潜力 

分 类 号：F326.11[经济管理—产业经济]