船舶近海水域海事事故人因致因风险分析  

Analyzing Human-Induced Risks in Offshore Maritime Accidents

作　　者：李成海[1] 赵卫健 刘杰 胡甚平[2] Li Chenghai;Zhao Weijian;Liu Jie;Hu Shenping(Shandong Transport College of Communications,Weifang 261206,China;Shanghai Maritime University,Shanghai 200120,China)

机构地区：[1]山东交通职业学院,山东潍坊261206 [2]上海海事大学,上海200120

出　　处：《浙江国际海运职业技术学院学报》2024年第2期1-6,共6页Journal of Zhejiang International Maritime College

基　　金：国家重点研发计划“在航船舶安全风险辨识与防控平台”项目专题(项目编号:2019YFB1600602);国家重点研发计划项目“北极航道通信导航保障技术研究与系统开发”(项目编号:2021YFC2801000)。

摘　　要：采用Fine-kinney理论和规则库相结合的方法,深入分析近海水域船舶海事事故中人因致因失误。根据各风险因子对近海水域海事事故的贡献程度层级结果,程度结果随着船舶船员操作量化程度提高而提高,随着管理体系规章清晰程度提高而降低。运用Apriori计算法对山东海域2010~2019年425起船舶海事事故数据进行挖掘,选择海事事故作为前项且人因致因失误作为后项的相关规则,利用SPSS软件对该方法求解的相关规则置信度值和各风险因子贡献程度值进行对比分析,以证明此方法的分析结果符合海事事故实际情况。此方法应用于船舶海事事故探索,可独立评估单一的风险因子。To conduct a comprehensive examination of human-induced errors in maritime accidents occurring in offshore waters,we employ a methodology that integrates Fine-kinney theory with a rule-based approach.Through a hierarchical assessment of various risk factors'contributions to offshore maritime accidents,we observe a correlation between increased quantification of ship crew operations and enhanced clarity in management system regulations with higher degree results.Utilizing the Apriori calculation method,we extract insights from 425 marine accidents in Shandong sea area spanning from 2010 to 2019,associating maritime accidents with human error causes.By comparing confidence values of these associations and the contribution degrees of each risk factor using SPSS software,we validate the alignment of our analytical outcomes with real-world maritime accident scenarios.This method not only aids in exploring maritime accidents but also facilitates the independent evaluation of individual risk factors.

关 键 词：近海水域 Fine-kinney 海事事故 人因致因事故 

分 类 号：U698.6[交通运输工程—港口、海岸及近海工程]