Construction of Prediction Model of Foodborne Disease Outbreaks and Its Trend Prediction—Guizhou Province,China,2023-2025  

作　　者：Li Zhang Sufang Xiong Shu Zhu Jigui Tian Qingyuan Chen Xiaobo Luo Hua Guo 

机构地区：[1]Institute of Public Health Surveillance and Evaluation,Guizhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Guiyang City,Guizhou Province,China [2]School of Public Health,Guizhou Medical University.Guiyang City,Guizhou Province,China

出　　处：《China CDC weekly》2024年第18期408-408,I0009,409-412,I0010-I0015,共12页中国疾病预防控制中心周报（英文）

基　　金：All participating institutions for providing information and support throughout the study.The authors also acknowledge the research team members involved in data collection.

摘　　要：Objective:Foodborne diseases pose a significant public health concern globally.This study aims to analyze the correlation between disease prevalence and climatic conditions,forecast the pattern of foodborne disease outbreaks,and offer insights for effective prevention and control strategies and optimizing health resource allocation policies in Guizhou Province.Methods:This study utilized theχ^(2) test and four comprehensive prediction models to analyze foodborne disease outbreaks recorded in the Guizhou Foodborne Disease Outbreak system between 2012 and 2022.The best-performing model was chosen to forecast the trend of foodborne disease outbreaks in Guizhou Province,2023-2025.Results:Significant variations were observed in the incidence of foodborne disease outbreaks in Guizhou Province concerning various meteorological factors(all P≤0.05).Among all models,the SARIMA-ARIMAX combined model demonstrated the most accurate predictive performance(RMSE:Prophet model=67.645,SARIMA model=3.953,ARIMAX model=26.544,SARIMA-ARIMAX model=26.196;MAPE:Prophet model=42.357%,SARIMA model=37.740%,ARIMAX model=15.289%,SARIMA-ARIMAX model=13.961%).Conclusion:The analysis indicates that foodborne disease outbreaks in Guizhou Province demonstrate distinct seasonal patterns.It is recommended to concentrate prevention efforts during peak periods.The SARIMA-ARIMAX hybrid model enhances the precision of monthly forecasts for foodborne disease outbreaks,offering valuable insights for future prevention and control strategies.

关 键 词：GUIZHOU PREVENTION offering 

分 类 号：R181.3[医药卫生—流行病学]