畜牧产业结构变动对生猪价格的影响  

Impact of structural changes in livestock industry on pig prices

作　　者：郝佳[1] HAO Jia

机构地区：[1]河南经贸职业学院,河南郑州450046

出　　处：《饲料研究》2024年第14期181-184,共4页Feed Research

基　　金：河南省软科学研究计划项目(项目编号:232400410123)。

摘　　要：数字经济时代下,畜牧产业作为发展现代农业、促进农业经济增长的关键驱动力,对稳定我国生猪价格具有重要作用。文章基于2011年2月—2023年1月共计144个月的生猪价格数据,利用VAR模型,实证检验畜牧产业结构变动对生猪价格的影响。结果显示:畜牧产业结构变动是引起生猪价格变化的格兰杰原因;生猪价格受畜牧产业结构变动的滞后影响;生猪价格在前两期受畜牧产业结构变动的负向冲击,从第3期开始受畜牧产业结构变动的正向影响,响应程度在第12期达到峰值,在第24期影响逐渐消失;畜牧产业结构变动对生猪价格的冲击响应周期约为2年,直至第2年仍存在10.85%的贡献率。研究表明,畜牧产业结构变动对生猪价格具有正向影响作用。In the era of digital economy,the livestock industry,as a key driving force for the development of modern agriculture and the promotion of agricultural economic growth,plays an important role in pig prices in China.Based on pig price data from February 2011 to January 2023,spanning a total of 144 months,this paper employs the VAR model to empirically test the impact of changes in the livestock industry structure on pig prices.The results show that changes in the livestock industry structure are a Granger cause of pig price fluctuations.The pig prices are affected by the lagged impact of changes in the livestock industry structure.The pig prices were negatively impacted by the changes in the livestock industry structure in the first two periods,and and began to be positively affected by the changes in the livestock industry structure from the third period.The response reached its peak in the 12th period,and the impact tended to disappear in the 24th period.The shock response cycle of changes in the livestock industry structure to pig prices is approximately two years,with a contribution rate of 10.85%still present by the end of the second year.The study indicates that changes in the livestock industry structure have a positive impact on the pig prices.

关 键 词：畜牧产业结构变动 生猪价格 VAR模型 脉冲响应函数 

分 类 号：S8-9[农业科学—畜牧兽医]