Exploring the Lagged Correlation Between Baidu Index and Influenza-Like Illness-China,2014-2019  

作　　者：Xuan Han Jiao Yang Yan Luo Dazhu Huo Xuya Yu Xuancheng Hu Ling Xin Liuyang Yang Hualei Xin Ting Zhang Zhongjie Li Weizhong Yang 

机构地区：[1]School of Population Medicine and Public Health,Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences(CAMS)&Peking Union Medical College,Beijing,China [2]School of Health Policy and Management,Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences&Peking Union Medical College,Beijing,China [3]Department of management science and information system,Faculty of Management and Economics,Kunming University of Science and Technology,Kunming City,Yunnan Province,China

出　　处：《China CDC weekly》2024年第26期629-634,共6页中国疾病预防控制中心周报（英文）

基　　金：Supported by CAMS Innovation Fund for Medical Sciences(2021-I2M-1-044);National Key Research and Development Program of China(2023YFC2308701).

摘　　要：Introduction:This study investigated the lagged correlation between Baidu Index for influenza-related keywords and influenza-like illness percentage(ILI%)across regions in China.The aim is to establish a scientific foundation for utilizing Baidu Index as an early warning tool for influenza-like illness epidemics.Methods:In this study,data on ILI%and Baidu Index were collected from 30 provincial-level administrative divisions(PLADs)spanning April 2014 to March 2019.The Baidu Index was categorized into Overall Index,Ordinary Index,Prevention Index,Symptom Index,and Treatment Index based on search query themes.The lagged correlation between the Baidu Index and ILI%was examined through the cross-correlation function(CCF)method.Results:Correlating the Baidu Overall Index of 30 PLADs with ILI%revealed CCF values ranging from 0.46 to 0.86,with a median lag of 0.5 days.Subcategory analysis indicated that the Prevention Index and Symptom Index exhibited quicker responses to ILI%,with median lags of−9 and−0.5 days,respectively,compared to 0 and 3 days for the Ordinary and Treatment Indexes.The median lag days between the Baidu Index and the ILI%were earlier in the northern PLADs compared to the southern PLADs.Discussion:The Prevention and Symptom Indexes show promising predictive capabilities for influenzalike illness epidemics.

关 键 词：utilizing illness BAIDU 

分 类 号：R511.7[医药卫生—内科学]