基于马尔可夫链的城市埋地燃气管道泄漏失效概率计算  

Markov Chain-Based Calculation of Failure Probability of Urban Buried Gas Pipeline Leakage

作　　者：杨睿 赵垒 祝晴[1,2] 鲍敬明 欧红香 邢志祥[4] Yang Rui;Zhao Lei;Zhu Qing;Bao Jingming;Ou Hongxiang;Xing Zhixiang(School of Chemistry and Chemical Engineering,Yancheng Institute of Technology,Jiangsu,224051;School of Emergency Management and Safety Engineering,Yancheng Institute of Technology,Jiangsu,224051;College of Mechanical and Electronic Engineering,China University of Petroleum(East China),Shandong,266580;School of Safety Science and Engineering,Changzhou University,Jiangsu,213164)

机构地区：[1]盐城工学院化学化工学院,江苏224051 [2]盐城工学院应急管理与安全工程学院,江苏224051 [3]中国石油大学(华东)机械工程学院,山东266580 [4]常州大学安全科学与工程学院,江苏213164

出　　处：《当代化工研究》2024年第16期33-36,共4页Modern Chemical Research

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目“化工园区典型有毒气体及烟气全域一体化智能感知预警技术及装备研究”(项目编号:2021YFC3001203);盐城工学院校级科研项目“城镇输气管道泄漏事故演化机理与动态风险评估”(项目编号:xjr2022018)。

摘　　要：城市埋地燃气管道泄漏可能造成大量人员伤亡和财产损失,因此,开展燃气管道泄漏概率研究具有重要意义。基于马尔可夫链理论建立城市埋地燃气管道泄漏失效概率的计算模型,量化其失效概率,联合欧洲天然气管道事故统计数据证明其有效性。结果表明,管道泄漏失效概率计算不可忽略管道的可修复性;调整修复率可使模型适用于不同泄漏类型的失效概率计算;模型预测精度满足工程要求;为燃气管道风险评估和事故防控提供基础数据支撑。Leakage of urban buried gas pipelines may cause a large number of casualties and property losses,so it is of great significance to carry out research on the probability of gas pipeline leakage.Based on the Markov chain theory,a model for calculating the failure probability of ur-ban buried gas pipeline leakage is established to quantify the failure probability,and its validity is proved jointly with the statistics of gas pipeline ac-cidents in Europe.The results show that the calculation of pipeline leakage failure probability cannot ignore the reparability of the pipeline;adjust-ing the repair rate can make the model applicable to the calculation of failure probability of different types of leakage;the model prediction accuracy meets the engineering requirements;and it provides the basic data support for the risk assessment and accident prevention and control of gas pipe-lines.

关 键 词：马尔可夫链 埋地管道 燃气泄漏 失效概率 

分 类 号：X937[环境科学与工程—安全科学]