辽宁省作物生长季参考作物腾发量变化分析  

Change Characteristics and Cause Analysis of Reference Crop Evapotranspiration during the Growing Season in Liaoning Province

作　　者：温日红[1,2] 肇同斌 张钰祺 冯艾琳 姜鹏 崔雪 王笑影 WEN Rihong;ZHAO Tongbin;ZHANG Yuqi;FENG Ailin;JIANG Peng;CUI Xue;WANG Xiaoying(Institute of Atmospheric Environment,China Meteorological Administration,Shenyang 110166,China;Panjin National Climate Observatory,Panjin 124000,China;Liaoning Meteorological Information Center,Shenyang 110166,China;Liaoning Meteorological Service Center,Shenyang 110166,China;Liaoning Ecological Meteorology and Satellite Remote Sensing Center,Shenyang 110166,China;Liaoning Forestry Pest Control and Quarantine station,Shenyang 110001,China)

机构地区：[1]中国气象局沈阳大气环境研究所,辽宁沈阳110166 [2]盘锦国家气候观象台,辽宁盘锦124000 [3]辽宁省气象信息中心,辽宁沈阳110166 [4]辽宁省气象服务中心,辽宁沈阳110166 [5]辽宁省生态气象和卫星遥感中心,辽宁沈阳110166 [6]辽宁省林业有害生物防治检疫站,辽宁沈阳110001

出　　处：《沙漠与绿洲气象》2024年第4期151-158,共8页Desert and Oasis Meteorology

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2022YFF0801301);辽宁省气象局年度基金项目(202406)和(202414);辽宁省气象局核心攻关项目(LNCP202205);中国气象局沈阳大气环境研究所基本科研业务费项目(2020SYIAEMS1、2018SYIAEZD3、2017SYIAEMS3);干旱气象科学研究基金项目(IAM202010)。

摘　　要：利用1961—2020年辽宁省56个国家级气象观测站生长季的逐日气象观测数据,采用Penman-Monteith公式计算辽宁省参考作物腾发量(ET_(0)),利用ArcGIS的克里格插值法、M-K检验分析辽宁省生长季ET_(0)的时空分布特征,对影响ET_(0)变化的气象因子进行了分析。结果表明:近60年辽宁省生长季参考作物腾发量呈现由西北向东南递减的变化趋势;ET_(0)在1961—2010年呈下降趋势,2011—2020年呈升高趋势,生长季多年平均ET_(0)变化趋势表现为波动下降;生长季内ET_(0)对相对湿度的响应最为敏感,为负效应;ET_(0)对风速和温度变化敏感性相对较小,为正效应。湿度的敏感系数绝对值明显高于风速和温度,7月达到峰值;多年相对变化率绝对值最大的是风速,其次是温度和相对湿度;对ET_(0)贡献最大的是风速,温度和湿度对ET_(0)的正贡献不及风速的负贡献,综合敏感性和贡献两方面因素分析,风速的变化趋势为ET_(0)呈下降趋势的主导因子。Based on daily meteorological observation data from 62 national meteorological observation stations in Liaoning province during the growing season from 1961 to 2020,the Penman Monteith equation was used to calculate the reference crop evapotranspiration(ET_(0))in Liaoning province.Using ArcGIS Kriging interpolation method and M-K test,the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of ET_(0)in Liaoning province during the growing season were analyzed,and the causes of ET_(0)changes were analyzed.The results indicated that the reference crop ET_(0)in Liaoning province during the growing season in the past 60 years showed a decreasing trend from the northwest to the southeast.The ET_(0)showed a declining pattern from 1961 to 2010,and followed by an ascending trend from 2011 to 2020.The variation trend of multi-year average ET_(0)during the growing season showed a fluctuating downward trend.The response of ET_(0)during the growing season to relative humidity was the most sensitive,which was a negative effect,and the response sensitivity of ET_(0)to wind speed and temperature changes was relatively small,which was a positive effect.The absolute value of the sensitivity coefficient of ET_(0)to humidity was significantly higher than those to wind speed and temperature.The maximum value of the sensitivity coefficient of ET_(0)to humidity appeared in July.The absolute value of the multi-year relative change rate of change was the largest in wind speed,followed by temperature and relative humidity.Wind speed was the largest contribution of the three meteorological elements to ET_(0),and the positive contribution of temperature and humidity to ET_(0)was less than the negative contribution of wind speed.According to the comprehensive sensitivity and contribution of two factors analysis,the changing trend of wind speed was the dominant factor for the declining trend of ET_(0).

关 键 词：腾发量 敏感性 贡献率 气象因子 辽宁省 

分 类 号：P426.2[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]