汉江上游白河流域洪水类型辨识与模拟  

Identification and simulation of flood types in Baihe basin of the upper Han River

作　　者：左凌峰 邹磊 夏军[1,3] 于家瑞 ZUO Lingfeng;ZOU Lei;XIA Jun;YU Jiarui(Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes,Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,China;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China;State Key Laboratory of Water Resources Engineering and Management,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430072,China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所陆地水循环及地表过程重点实验室,北京100101 [2]中国科学院大学,北京100049 [3]武汉大学水资源工程与调度全国重点实验室,武汉430072

出　　处：《南水北调与水利科技（中英文）》2024年第4期641-650,共10页South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science & Technology

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2023YFC3006705);国家自然科学基金项目(42101043)。

摘　　要：构建多维度洪水行为特征指标刻画洪水过程,结合主成分分析、K均值聚类和水文模型等方法,辨识并模拟白河流域主要洪水类型及其行为特征。结果表明:白河流域主要洪水类型可分为矮胖型中等洪水、剧烈变化型大洪水、尖瘦型中等洪水和单峰突发性小洪水4类;洪水类型的空间分布具有显著的区域差异,干流以矮胖型中等洪水类型为主,支流以单峰突发性小洪水类型为主;时变增益水文模型能够准确捕捉不同类型洪水的行为特征,特别对尖瘦型中等洪水和单峰突发性小洪水的量级、涨落变化等特征模拟效果较好。研究成果可为流域防洪减灾和水资源区域化科学管理等提供科学支撑。As climate change and human activities intensify,the frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall events keep rising,resulting in increased occurrences of extreme flood disasters.Due to the influence of climate change and topography, the flood processes exhibit significant spatial heterogeneity. The Baihe River basin in the upper reaches of the Han River is rich in water resources, but experiences uneven spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall, leading to frequent occurrences of flood disasters. Identifying and simulating representative flood types in the Baihe River basin are of great significance for regional flood management. The daily runoff processes of seven hydrological stations in the Baihe River basin were analyzed for the period from 2007 to 2020. In order to accurately separate flood events by comprehensively considering their magnitude and morphological characteristics, a method that couples with the Peaks Over Threshold and the Sliding Variance Threshold was constructed. A system of behavioral characteristic indicators was constructed to comprehensively describe flood events, considering six dimensions: magnitude, duration, fluctuation variation, peak distribution, peak volume relationship, and morphology. Using this system of behavioral characteristic indicators, the types of floods in Baihe River basin were identified by combining principal component analysis and the K-mean clustering algorithm. Finally, flood events and their behavioral characteristics in the Baihe River basin were simulated by the Time Variant Gain Model. Based on the constructed flood event separation method, 249 flood events were accurately identified in the Baihe River basin. These flood events in the Baihe River basin were classified into four representative types, accounting for 41.0%, 4.0%, 23.3%, and 31.7% of the total flood events, respectively. The four flood types are characterized as follows: continuous short and fat medium floods, extreme variable large floods, sharp and thin medium floods with strong catastrophic

关 键 词：洪水 洪水行为特征 洪水类型 时变增益水文模型 白河流域 

分 类 号：TV122[水利工程—水文学及水资源]