我国2019—2023年登革热报告病例流行病学特征  

Epidemiological characteristics of reported dengue fever cases in China,2019-2023

作　　者：李卓威 黄晓霞[1] 田婷婷 李阿茜 杜珊珊 何广学 李建东[1] LI Zhuowei;HUANG Xiaoxia;TIAN Tingting;LI A Qian;Du Shanshan;HE Guangxue;LI Jiandong(National Key Laboratory of Intelligent Tracking and Forecasting for Infectious Diseases,Key Laboratory of Biosafety,National Health Commissions,National Institute for Viral Disease Control and Prevention,China CDC,Beijing 102206,China;School of Public Health,Binzhou Medical University,Yantai,Shandong 264003,China)

机构地区：[1]传染病溯源预警与智能决策全国重点实验室,国家卫生健康委员会生物安全重点实验室,医学病毒和病毒病重点实验室,中国疾病预防控制中心病毒病预防控制所,北京102206 [2]滨州医学院公共卫生学院,山东烟台264003

出　　处：《中国热带医学》2024年第8期925-930,共6页China Tropical Medicine

基　　金：北京市科技计划项目(No.Z221100007422076)。

摘　　要：目的分析我国2019—2023年登革热报告病例的流行病学特征,为登革热防控工作提供科学依据。方法利用Joinpoint回归、SaTScan及ArcGIS等软件对中国疾病预防控制信息系统(NNDRS)中报告的登革热病例数时间、空间和人间分布特征及发展趋势进行分析。结果我国2019—2023年共报告病例43095例,平均报告发病率为0.61/10万,年报告发病率波动显著(AAPC=-3.16%,95%CI:-54.16%~91.47%),主要集中在2019年和2023年,约占近5年总报告病例数的96.83%。各年龄组人群均可发病,30~<40岁年龄组病例占22.6%。全年均有病例发生,6月份开始快速上升,高峰期集中在8—10月份,为34780例(RR=12.44,LLR=29262.52,P<0.05)。疫情特征以输入引发本地传播为主,输入病例主要来源于东南亚地区(占86.56%),其中柬埔寨3284例(占46.11%)、缅甸1851例(占25.99%)为病例主要来源国家。不同年份有显著不同,西南地区、华南地区、华东地区发生本地传播疫情风险高,高发地区主要分布在云南和广东,疫情高峰期持续时间受本地传播疫情早期及时性发现影响,疫情峰值与有防控措施落实有效性有关,疫情规模受境外输入压力和本地疫情防控措施落实能力影响。结论随着全球登革热传播日益上升的趋势,我国发生登革热本地传播疫情风险增加,宜加强早期疫情主动监测和做好本地传播疫情发生后预防控制方案、人员、技术和物质的准备,因地制宜探索跨境流动人员的管理,及时进行风险评估,有效降低输入引发本地传播疫情风险。Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of reported cases of dengue fever in China's Mainland from 2019 to 2023 and provide a scientific basis for dengue prevention and control efforts.Methods The temporal,spatial,and population distribution characteristics,as well as the trends of dengue fever cases reported in the National Notifiable Disease Reporting System(NNDRS)of China were analyzed using software such as Joinpoint regression,SaTScan,and ArcGIS.Results From 2019 to 2023,a total of 43095 cases were reported in China,with an average incidence rate of 61/100000.The annual reported incidence rate fluctuated significantly(AAPC=-3.16%,95%CI:-54.16%-91.47%),mainly concentrated in 2019 and 2023,accounting for 96.83%of the total reported cases over the past five years.All age groups were susceptible to the disease,with the 30 to<40 age group comprising 22.6%of cases.Cases were reported throughout the year,with a rapid increase starting in June and a peak period concentrated between August and October(n=34780,RR=12.44,LLR=29262.52,P<0.05).The epidemic was primarily characterized by imported cases leading to autochthonous transmission,with the majority of imported cases originating from Southeast Asia(86.56%),particularly from Cambodia(46.11%,3284 cases)and Myanmar(25.99%,1851 cases).The epidemic characteristics varied significantly across different years,with high risks of autochthonous transmission epidemics in Southwest,South,and Southeast China.High-risk local transmission were mainly distributed in Yunnan and Guangdong.The duration of the peak period of the epidemic was affected by the timeliness of early detection of local transmission,and the peak value of the epidemic was related to the effectiveness of prevention and control measures.The scale of the epidemic was influenced by the pressure of by cross-border transmission and the ability to implement local measures for dengue prevention and control.Conclusions With the increasing trend of global dengue transmission,the risk of autochthonous tr

关 键 词：登革热 流行病学特征 发病 时空分析 境外输入 中国 

分 类 号：R512.8[医药卫生—内科学]