基于非概率可靠度的重力坝抗滑稳定分析  

Analysis on Anti-sliding Stability of Gravity Dam Based on Non-probabilistic Reliability

作　　者：周方明 刘星雨 彭位华 牛智勇 ZHOU Fangming;LIU Xingyu;PENG Weihua;NIU Zhiyong(School of Resources and Civil Engineering,Suzhou University,Suzhou 234099,China)

机构地区：[1]宿州学院资源与土木工程学院,安徽宿州234099

出　　处：《浙江水利水电学院学报》2024年第4期41-44,共4页Journal of Zhejiang University of Water Resources and Electric Power

基　　金：安徽省高等学校省级质量工程项目(2022zygzt s116);安徽省自然资源厅科技项目(2022-K-8);安徽省高校自然科学研究重点项目(KJ2021A1112);宿州学院博士科研启动基金项目(2019jb15)。

摘　　要：重力坝抗滑稳定分析是大坝安全评价的重要组成部分,其结果直接影响大坝正常服役。在内部和外部环境等多因素协同驱动下,长期服役的混凝土坝材料性能将呈现不同程度的时变衰退,而已有的研究多采用概率可靠度方法进行分析,且重力坝工程统计信息与实际工况不相匹配,统计资料难以反馈各参数变量的精确概率分布。针对上述问题,基于非概率可靠度理论,提出区间参数下的重力坝抗滑稳定非概率可靠度分析方法,并结合某工程实例编制相应的可靠度分析程序。实例分析表明,长期服役下的重力坝各失效模式的非概率可靠度指标明显下降,安全裕度变小,计算结果可为大坝补强修缮提供一定的参考依据。Anti-sliding stability analysis of gravity dam is an important part of dam safety evaluation,and its results directly affect the normal service of the dam.Driven by multiple factors such as internal and external environment,the material properties of long-term service concrete dams will show varying degrees of time-varying recession.However,most of the existing studies use the probability reliability method for analysis.Moreover,the statistical information of gravity dam projects does not match the actual working conditions,and the statistical data are difficult to feedback the accurate probability distribution of each parameter variable.In view of the above problems,based on the theory of non-probabilistic reliability,a non-probabilistic reliability analysis method for anti-sliding stability of gravity dams with uncertain parameters is proposed,and the corresponding reliability analysis program is compiled with an engineering example.The case analysis shows that the non-probabilistic reliability index of each failure mode of the gravity dam under long-term service is significantly reduced,and the safety margin is reduced.The calculation results can provide a certain reference for the reinforcement and repair of the dam.

关 键 词：重力坝 抗滑稳定 非概率可靠度 响应面法 

分 类 号：TV642.3[水利工程—水利水电工程]