城市碳达峰的非线性机制与异质性路径研究——基于山东省地级市面板数据的实证分析  

Nonlinear Mechanism and Heterogeneous Path of Urban Carbon Peaking:Empirical Analysis Based on Panel Data of Prefecture-level Cities in Shandong Province

作　　者：曲越 刘家童 秦晓钰 QU Yue;LIU Jiatong;QIN Xiaoyu(College of Economics and Management,Shandong University of Science and Technology,Qingdao 266590,Shandong,China)

机构地区：[1]山东科技大学经济管理学院,山东青岛266590

出　　处：《中国石油大学学报（社会科学版）》2024年第4期1-10,共10页Journal of China University of Petroleum (Edition of Social Sciences)

基　　金：山东省社会科学规划研究项目(22DJJJ16)。

摘　　要：经济快速发展带来的CO_(2)排放问题已成为全球公认的环境问题,对此,中国于2020年提出了“双碳”目标。作为碳排放大省,山东省的CO_(2)排放机制和碳达峰轨迹值得关注。以EKC曲线为基础,运用面板平滑转换模型(PSTR)实证分析山东省地级市层面的碳达峰路径。研究表明:山东省地级市CO_(2)的排放受到地区经济发展水平、产业结构、人口规模和科技水平等因素的影响,经济发展与碳排放的关系符合EKC曲线的倒“U”型特征。异质性研究发现:山东省各地级市的碳排放机制和路径存在明显的区域异质性,其中,青岛、济南和威海等城市碳峰值点的人均GDP水平明显高于其他城市,这些城市有望成为山东省最先实现碳达峰目标的城市;以滨州、德州和济宁为代表的轻工业主导型城市,其碳减排处于山东省的平均水平,这类城市在碳减排的过程中尤其需要注意产业结构的优化和人口规模的控制;枣庄、菏泽和淄博等重工业主导型城市,在较低的经济发展水平上逐步达到碳峰值点,这些城市重工业比重相对较高,提升经济发展水平和合理控制人口规模成为该类城市碳减排的工作重点。The issue of carbon dioxide emissions brought about by rapid economic development has become a globally recognized environmental problem,in response to this,China has proposed the"dual carbon"goal in 2020.As a major carbon-emitting province,the mechanism of carbon dioxide emissions and the trajectory towards carbon peak in Shandong Province are worthy of attention.Based on the Environmental Kuznets Curve(EKC),this paper employs the Panel Smooth Transition Regression model(PSTR)to empirically analyze the carbon peaking pathways at the prefecture-level cities in Shandong Province.Results indicate that the emissions of carbon dioxide in prefecture-level cities of Shandong Province are influenced by factors such as regional economic development level,industrial structure,population agglomeration,and level of technology.The relationship between economic development and carbon emissions conforms to the inverted"U-shaped"characteristic of the EKC curve.Heterogeneity analysis reveals that there is a significant regional heterogeneity in the carbon emission mechanisms and pathways among the prefecture-level cities in Shandong Province.Cities like Qingdao,Jinan,and Weihai have a higher per capita GDP level at the carbon peak point compared to other cities,which are likely expected to be the first to achieve the carbon peak target in Shandong Province.In addition,light industry-dominated cities such as Binzhou,Dezhou,and Jining exhibit average carbon reduction levels within the province and need to particularly focus on optimizing industrial structures and controlling population sizes during the carbon reduction process.Heavy industry-dominated cities like Zaozhuang,Heze,and Zibo,which reach their carbon peak at relatively lower economic development levels,have higher proportions of heavy industry,for these cities,improving economic development levels and reasonably controlling population sizes are crucial for effective carbon reduction.

关 键 词：碳达峰 碳减排 EKC曲线 区域协同 

分 类 号：F062.2[经济管理—政治经济学]