基于分位数映射法的太阳能精细化分布评估及长时预测  

Refined distribution evaluation and long term prediction of solar energy based on quantile mapping method

作　　者：华科 王智超 姚遥 姜国栋 韩磊 万杰[2] 田地 杨大智 HUA Ke;WANG Zhichao;YAO Yao;JIANG Guodong;HAN Lei;WAN Jie;TIAN Di;YANG Dazhi(State Grid Heilongjiang Electric Power Company Limited Electric Power Research Institute,Harbin 150030,China;School of Energy Science and Technology,Harbin Institute of Technology,Harbin 150006,China;School of Electrical Engineering and Automation,Harbin Institute of Technology,Harbin 150006,China)

机构地区：[1]国网黑龙江省电力有限公司科学研究院,黑龙江哈尔滨150030 [2]哈尔滨工业大学能源科学与工程学院,黑龙江哈尔滨150006 [3]哈尔滨工业大学电气工程及自动化学院,黑龙江哈尔滨150006

出　　处：《中国石油大学学报（自然科学版）》2024年第4期198-205,共8页Journal of China University of Petroleum(Edition of Natural Science)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(51877049);国家电网公司科技项目(5224002000N2)。

摘　　要：太阳能资源的高效开发和利用对人类减少化石燃料的消费及温室气体的排放具有重要意义,为进一步加强东北地区尤其是哈尔滨市区域太阳能资源的高效开发,精细化分布评估和长时预测必不可少。选取国际耦合模式比较计划第六阶段(CMIP6)的数据集,利用分位数映射法,对研究区域未来30年太阳辐射数据进行降尺度处理,从而获得高分辨率太阳辐射数据;根据预测数据分析太阳辐射强度时空分布规律,评估太阳能资源丰富度及稳定性。结果表明:未来30年太阳总辐射呈缓慢的下降趋势,2020—2029年太阳能资源最丰富;总辐射量和日照时数呈现西多东少的分布,尤其是西南区域太阳能资源最富裕,整个区域都达到太阳能资源很丰富的水平,太阳能资源稳定性高,具有很大的开发潜力。The efficient development and utilization of solar energy are of great significance for reducing the consumption of fossil fuels and greenhouse gas emissions.In order to further develop the solar energy in Northeast of China,especially in the area of Harbin,it is necessary to make refined distribution assessment and long term prediction.In the present work,the database of the CMIP6 was selected and downloaded,and the quantile mapping method was used to downscale and obtain high-resolution solar radiation data in the focusing area in the next 30 years.Based on the prediction data,the temporal and spatial distributions of global horizontal irradiance were studied,and the stability of solar energy resources was evaluated.The results show that the total solar radiation will decline slowly in the next 30 years,and the solar energy resources will be the most abundant in 2020-2029.The GHI and sunshine hours appear more in the western than in the eastern part,especially in the southwest,where the solar energy resources are the richest.The entire region is rich in solar energy resources and the solar energy resources are stable and have great development potential.

关 键 词：太阳能 太阳辐射预测 分位数映射法 哈尔滨地区 

分 类 号：TK519[动力工程及工程热物理—热能工程]