上海沿海海浪警报发布标准研究  

Release standard of wave warning in Shanghai coastal area

作　　者：于芸 李铖 徐婷婷 沈心仪 梁颖瑜 姚圣康 YU Yun;LI Cheng;XU Tingting;SHEN Xinyi;LIANG Yingyu;YAO Shengkang(East China Sea Forecasting and Disaster Reduction Center,Ministry of Natural Resources,Shanghai 200136,China;Shanghai Marine Monitoring and Forecasting Center,Shanghai 200136,China)

机构地区：[1]自然资源部东海预报减灾中心,上海201306 [2]上海市海洋监测预报中心,上海200062

出　　处：《海洋预报》2024年第4期21-31,共11页Marine Forecasts

基　　金：沪市监标技[2020]560号。

摘　　要：应用GB/T 41165-2021《海洋预报结果准确性检验评估方法》,对上海沿海2007—2020年发布的海浪警报作全面的准确性检验评估,详细分析空报与漏报的发生原因,并应用历史长期风浪资料,统计分析上海沿海各个测波点所在海域的波浪特征,评估2 m以上波浪过程的分布状况,结合警报的检验结果,合理与科学地给出上海沿海4个海域的海浪警报发布标准。Based on the inspection and evaluation methods in Chapter 9 of GB/T 41165-2021'Methods for the Accuracy Inspection and Evaluation of Marine Forecast Results',this study assesses the accuracy of issued sea wave warnings in Shanghai coastal area during 2007‒2020,and analyzes the causes of false and missed warnings.Combining wave feature in Shanghai coastal area around each wave measurement point derived from historical long-term wind and wave data,spatial distribution of the waves with height above 2.0 m,and test result of the issued sea wave warnings,the criteria for issuing wave warnings in four coastal waters of Shanghai are proposed in a reasonable and scientific way.

关 键 词：海浪警报 预报海区 准确性检验 沿海海域 警报等级 

分 类 号：P731.33[天文地球—海洋科学]