基于海洋环境影响风险分析的海上搜救风险评估研究及典型海域示范应用  

Risk assessment of maritime search and rescue based on marine environmental risk analysis and its applications in typical waters in China

作　　者：郭凯旋 杨逸秋[1] 于寒[1] 张苗茵 GUO Kaixuan;YANG Yiqiu;YU Han;ZHANG Miaoyin(National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center,Beijing 100081,China;Key Laboratory of Marine Hazards Forecasting,National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center,Ministry of Natural Resources,Beijing 100081,China)

机构地区：[1]国家海洋环境预报中心,北京100081 [2]国家海洋环境预报中心自然资源部海洋灾害预报技术重点实验室,北京100081

出　　处：《海洋预报》2024年第4期100-109,共10页Marine Forecasts

基　　金：南方海洋科学与工程广东省实验室(珠海)2023年度自主科研项目(SML2022SP504)。

摘　　要：针对我国海上遇险事故快速增长的严峻态势,筛选出风、浪、能见度、海流4个影响海上搜救行动安全的主要影响要素,基于层次分析理论建立了海上搜救风险评估等级划分标准和海上搜救风险评估方法。根据我国海上专业救助船舶、飞机的性能参数计算其在复杂气象条件下实施海上搜救行动时所能应对的最大风险阈值,选取我国4处典型海域,使用统计学方法分别计算了海上搜救环境风险值。In view of the rapid growth of China's maritime accident situation,risk grade rule and risk assessment methodology for maritime search and rescue have been established based on the Analytic Hierarchy Process theory,according to four major factors including wind,wave,visibility and currents,which affect the safety of the MSAR operations.The maximum risk threshold of the MSAR operations is obtained according to main performance parameters of maritime professional rescue ships and aircraft and weather conditions,and the environmental risk values of the MSAR operations in four typical waters in China are acquired using statistical method.

关 键 词：复杂气象 海上搜救 风险评估 层次分析 

分 类 号：U676.8[交通运输工程—船舶及航道工程]