基于离散时间贝叶斯网络的CBTC车载设备可靠性分析  

Reliability Analysis of CBTC Onboard Equipment Based on Discrete-time Bayesian Networks

作　　者：刘懂懂 王友平 吴鸣晢 刘大伟 LIU Dongdong;WANG Youping;WU Mingzhe;LIU Dawei

机构地区：[1]宁波市轨道交通集团有限公司,浙江宁波315101 [2]四川众合智控科技有限公司,成都610036

出　　处：《铁道通信信号》2024年第9期81-87,共7页Railway Signalling & Communication

基　　金：浙江众合科技股份有限公司科研课题(ZHKJ-QZDYXXHXTZNYW-R205-20221005)。

摘　　要：基于通信的列车控制系统(CBTC)车载设备用于实现列车安全防护和自动运行,其可靠性直接关系到列车的运行安全和效率。针对设备运营过程中的动态失效问题,基于离散时间贝叶斯网络(DTBN)对CBTC车载设备可靠性进行分析。首先,在分析CBTC车载设备功能结构的基础上构建系统动态故障树模型,基于动态故障树模型与DTBN模型的转换规则以及DTBN逻辑门条件概率表,建立基于DTBN的可靠性分析模型;其次,通过DTBN的正向推理实现CBTC车载设备的可靠度评估;最后,通过DTBN的反向推理及重要度计算,实现CBTC车载设备薄弱环节分析及重要度排序。结果表明:ATP子系统中输出继电器板、输出板等是CBTC车载设备最薄弱的板卡级设备,需重点关注。该方法能为CBTC车载设备的可靠性分析提供依据,有效提升系统智能运维水平。CBTC onboard equipment is used to realize safety protection and automatic operation of trains,and its reliability is directly related to the operation safety and efficiency of trains.Aiming to solve the problems such as dynamic failure during operation,this paper carries out reliability analysis for the CBTC onboard equipment based on discrete-time Bayesian network(DTBN).Firstly,based on the analysis of the functional structure of CBTC onboard equipment,this paper constructs the dynamic fault tree model of the system,and establishes the reliability analysis model based on the conversion rules between DTBN and the dynamic fault tree model and the logic gate conditional probability table of DTBN.Secondly,the reliability evaluation of CBTC onboard equipment is realized through the forward reasoning of DTBN.Finally,through the reverse reasoning and importance calculation of DTBN,the weak link analysis and importance ranking of CBTC onboard equipment are realized.The results show that the output relay board and output board in ATP subsystem are the weakest board-level equipment of CBTC onboard equipment,which should be paid attention to.This method can provide a basis for the reliability analysis of CBTC onboard equipment,and effectively improve the intelligent operation and maintenance level of the system.

关 键 词：基于通信的列车控制系统 离散时间贝叶斯网络 车载设备 动态故障树 可靠性 重要度排序 智能运维 

分 类 号：U284.2[交通运输工程—交通信息工程及控制]