人口老龄化是否助推了顺周期财政风险?  

Does Population Aging Contribute to Pro-Cyclical Fiscal Risk?

作　　者：龙腾 王希元 LONG Teng;WANG Xi-yuan(School of Public Finance&Taxation,Guangdong Uvinversity of Finance and Economics,Guangzhou 510320,China;School of Economics,Yunnan University,Kunming 650504,China)

机构地区：[1]广东财经大学财政税务学院,广东广州510320 [2]云南大学经济学院,云南昆明650504

出　　处：《经济体制改革》2024年第4期168-174,共7页Reform of Economic System

基　　金：国家社会科学基金青年项目“基于双重资本深化的我国服务业劳动生产率提升路径研究”(20CJL025)。

摘　　要：人口老龄化会增加养老部门需求,可能成为推动我国顺周期财政风险的重要因素。基于1990~2020年世界52个经济体的面板数据,分析人口老龄化对财政政策顺周期风险的影响、机制及相关变量的异质性问题。研究发现:人口老龄化会推动财政政策的顺周期特性,增加顺周期财政风险,税收约束和赤字规模则是人口老龄化间接推动顺周期财政风险的重要因素;在经济衰退期,由于政府在顺周期紧缩性政策框架下的财政能力衰退,增量养老需求无法得到有效的财政支持,导致老龄化在顺周期紧缩性政策框架下的影响不显著;而具备“富而过老”特征的经济体,老龄化对财政政策顺周期性的影响效果更为明显。因此,我国需根据人口年龄结构的关键特征,充分发挥平抑经济波动的调控职能,缓解内部和外部财政约束,构建开放型经济新体制,推动中国财政政策周期由“顺”转“逆”。The aging population will increase the demand of the pension sector,which may become an important factor to promote China's pro-cyclical financial risk.Based on the panel data of 52 countries from 1990 to 2020,this paper analyzes the impact of population aging on the pro-cyclical risk of fiscal policy,its mechanism and the heterogeneity of related variables.The results show that population aging promotes the pro-cyclical characteristics of fiscal policy and increase the pro-cyclical fiscal risk,and the tax constraint and deficit size are the important factors that indirectly promote the pro-cyclical fiscal risk.In the period of economic recession,due to the decline of the government's fiscal capacity under the pro-cyclical tightening policy framework,the incremental pension demand cannot be effectively supported,resulting in an insignificant impact of aging under the pro-cyclical tightening policy framework.In the economies with the characteristics of"rich but too old",the effect of aging on the pro-cyclical fiscal policy is more obvious.Therefore,according to the key characteristics of the population age structure,China needs to give full play to the regulation function of smoothing economic fluctuations,relieve internal and external financial constraints,build a new open economic system,and promote China's fiscal policy cycle from"procyclical"to"counter-cyclical."

关 键 词：老龄化 顺周期财政风险 财政平衡 机制检验 

分 类 号：F11[经济管理—国际贸易]