基于高阶磁异常导数与高阶统计量的地震短临预测方法  

Short-Impending Earthquake Prediction Method Based on High-Order Magnetic Anomaly Derivative and High-Order Statistic

作　　者：刘欢[1,2,3] 赵润卓 董浩斌[1,2,3] Liu Huan;Zhao Runzhuo;Dong Haobin(School of Automation,China University of Geosciences,Wuhan 430074,China;Hubei Key Laboratory of Advanced Control and Intelligent Automation for Compler Systems,Wuhan 430074,China;Engineering Research Center of Intelligent Technology for Geo-Eploration,Ministry of Education,Wuhan 430074,China)

机构地区：[1]中国地质大学自动化学院,湖北武汉430074 [2]复杂系统先进控制与智能自动化湖北省重点实验室,湖北武汉430074 [3]地球探测智能化技术教育部工程研究中心,湖北武汉430074

出　　处：《地球科学》2024年第8期2952-2960,共9页Earth Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(No.42274233);国家重点研发计划项目(No.2018YFC1503702)。

摘　　要：中强级地震给我国人民生命财产安全带来不可磨灭的灾难,探索中强震发生时地球内部磁场与地震间的联系,获取地震发生的前兆信息,进而实现对中强级地震的预报,是亟待解决的关键问题.近年来,地磁场垂直分量Z被普遍用来进行地震预警,但其存在预测周期长、阈值不易确定、对中强震预测精度不高等问题.为解决上述问题,提出一种基于高阶磁异常导数与高阶统计量的地震短临预测方法(简称:HMAD-HS),以有效减少高斯噪声对中强震前兆地磁信号的影响、缩短预测期、降低预测误报率,进而提高预测性能.为验证该方法的可行性,以2017年新疆喀什地区中强震情况为例,将HMAD-HS与加卸载响应比、地磁逐日比等常用方法进行对比分析,实验表明:HMAD-HS处理得到的中强震前兆信号明显且漏报率与误报率降低30%以上,大幅提升了预报可信度.此外,将HMAD-HS应用于我国多个地区的中强震短临预测,证明该方法具有普适性且对中强震预测效果良好.In recent years,moderate-strong earthquakes have brought indelible disasters to the safety of people's lives and properties.Hence,exploring the connection between geomagnetic fields and earthquakes,obtaining precursor information,and then realizing the prediction of moderate-strong earthquakes are vital issues that need to be solved urgently.For now,the vertical component Z of the geomagnetic field has been widely used for moderate-strong earthquake early warning.However,it still has numerous problems such as long prediction periods,difficulty in determining the threshold,and low prediction accuracy.To solve the above problems,a short-impending earthquake prediction method based on high-order magnetic anomaly derivative and highorder statistic,dubbed HMAD-HS,is proposed,which can effectively reduce the influence of Gaussian noise on the precursor geomagnetic field,shorten the prediction period,and then improve the prediction accuracy.To verify the feasibility of this method,taking the moderate-strong earthquakes of Kashgar,Xinjiang in 2017 as an example,the HMAD-HS was compared with two commonly used methods,i.e.,load-unload response ratio and geomagnetic daily ratio.The experimental results show that the precursor signals of moderate-strong earthquakes obtained by HMAD-HS are obvious,and the missing report rate and false report rate are reduced by more than 30%,which greatly improves the forecast credibility.Further,the applications of HMAD-HS for the short-term prediction of moderate-strong earthquakes in many regions of our country prove that the proposed method is universal and has a good effect on predicting moderate-strong earthquakes.

关 键 词：中强震 前兆信息 高阶磁异常导数 高阶统计量 地球物理学 

分 类 号：P316[天文地球—地震学]