云南山区高速公路养护成本控制影响因素研究  

Study on Influencing Factors of Maintenance Cost Control of Expressway in Mountainous Area of Yunnan Province

作　　者：李志英 申梦 徐梦凡 LI Zhiying;SHEN Meng;XU Mengfan(School of Architecture and Urban Planning,Yunnan University,Kunming 650504,China)

机构地区：[1]云南大学建筑与规划学院,云南昆明650504

出　　处：《工程管理学报》2024年第4期101-106,共6页Journal of Engineering Management

基　　金：国家自然科学基金地区项目(52368008)。

摘　　要：分别采用文献研究法、问卷调查法和德尔菲法对云南山区高速公路养护成本影响因素进行识别和调整,得出通车年限、车道数、路基宽度、路面厚度、桥隧比、交通量、当地年降雨量、坡度和直接费用9个关键影响因素。运用灰色关联分析法计算各影响因素与养护成本的关联度,再对关联度ri>0.8的影响因素进行定量分析。在此基础上,构建关联度ri>0.8的影响因素对云南山区高速公路养护成本的多元回归模型,并选取云南省DG高速公路养护B段为案例,证明了多元线性回归模型应用的可行性。In this paper,literature research,questionnaire surveys,and the Delphi method were used to identify and adjust the factors influencing the maintenance cost of Yunnan mountain expressways.Nine key factors were derived:years of operation,number of lanes,roadbed width,pavement thickness,bridge-to-tunnel ratio,traffic volume,local annual rainfall,gradient,and direct cost..Grey correlation analysis was used to calculate the correlation between the influencing factors and the maintenance cost.Finally,the influencing factors with correlation ri>0.8 were quantitatively analysed.On this basis,a multiple regression model was constructed for the influence factors with correlation ri>0.8 on the maintenance cost of Yunnan mountainous expressways,and section B of DG highway maintenance in Yunnan Province was selected as the case which proved the feasibility of the application of the multiple linear regression model.

关 键 词：云南山区 高速公路 养护成本 成本控制 影响因素 

分 类 号：TU723.3[建筑科学—建筑技术科学]