四种气候变化情景下中国樱桃的潜在适生区预测  

Prediction of potential suitable regions of Prunus pseudocerasus based on MaxEnt model under climate change

作　　者：付陈龙 李蒙[1] 田昌芬 宋炎峰 伊贤贵[1] 王贤荣[1] FU Chenlong;LI Meng;TIAN Changfen;SONG Yanfeng;YI Xiangui;WANG Xianrong(Co-Innovation Center for Sustainable Forestry in Southern China,Nanjing Forestry University,Nanjing 210037,China)

机构地区：[1]南京林业大学,南方现代林业协同创新中心,江苏南京210037

出　　处：《南京林业大学学报（自然科学版）》2024年第4期235-242,共8页Journal of Nanjing Forestry University：Natural Sciences Edition

基　　金：江苏省科学技术厅现代农业重点项目(BE2020343)。

摘　　要：【目的】中国樱桃(Prunus pseudocerasus)是我国古老的栽培果树之一。分析当前和未来气候变化情景下中国樱桃潜在适生区的变化趋势,为深入认识中国樱桃生长习性以及合理栽培和资源保护提供参考。【方法】基于中国樱桃现实地理分布数据和环境气候因子数据,使用MaxEnt模型模拟中国樱桃当前、未来2050年代和2070年代4种气候变化情景(SSP126、SSP245、SSP370和SSP585)下的潜在适生区分布,评估影响中国樱桃适生区分布的重要环境气候因子并分析其潜在适生区的变化趋势。【结果】采用ROC曲线法检验预测结果精度为0.936,说明预测结果可信度高。影响中国樱桃潜在适生区范围的关键因子为最冷月最低温、年降水量和最热季平均气温,土壤因子对中国樱桃适生区的限制不明显;现代气候条件下中国樱桃的潜在地理分布区主要集中于华东、华中以及西南地区,其中高适生区主要位于山东中东部和陕西南部;未来气候变化条件下,中国樱桃原本适生区范围收缩,西藏中部、吉林东部出现新的适生区。【结论】未来气候变化情景下,中国樱桃的潜在适生区将持续缩小,呈零星化、碎片化分布,并逐渐向高纬度、高海拔地区移动,这一结果可为中国樱桃种质资源的保护和产业规划提供理论依据。【Objective】Prunus pseudocerasus,one of the oldest cultivated species in China,is the focus of this study which predicts its suitable growth regions currently and in the future.This serves as a reference for understanding its growth habits and enhancing its cultivation.【Method】The MaxEnt model simulated the distribution of potential suitable areas for P.pseudocerasus under four climate scenarios(SSP126,SSP245,SSP370 and SSP585)at different times.This was based on geographic and environmental climate data.Important climatic variables influencing these areas were identified,and changes in potential suitable regions were analyzed.【Result】The accuracy of the predictions was validated using ROC analysis,achieving a high score of 0.936.Key climatic factors included annual precipitation,minimum temperature of the coldest month,and mean temperature of the warmest quarter.Soil factors did not significantly limit the distribution of P.pseudocerasus.Currently,suitable areas are primarily in the eastern,central and southwest China,with highly suitable regions in central and eastern Shandong,and southern Shaanxi.Climate change is expected to reduce these areas while creating new suitable regions in central Xizang and eastern Jilin.【Conclusion】Under future climate change scenarios,the potential suitable areas for P.pseudocerasus will become fragmented and shift towards higher latitudes and altitudes.These findings provide a theoretical basis for the conservation and industrial development of P.pseudocerasus in China.

关 键 词：中国樱桃 潜在适生区 种质资源保护 MaxEnt模型 

分 类 号：S718[农业科学—林学]