灾难冲击、宏观经济稳定与货币政策选择——基于DSGE模型的决策效应分析  

Disaster Impact,Macroeconomic Stability and Monetary Policy Choice——Analysis of Decision Effects Based on a DSGE Model

作　　者：赵君[1] 武凌曦 ZHAO Jun;WU Ling-xi(Tianjin Foreign Studies University,School of English Studies,Tianjin 300204,China)

机构地区：[1]天津外国语大学英语学院,天津300204

出　　处：《陇东学院学报》2024年第5期12-16,共5页Journal of Longdong University

基　　金：2020年天津市高校青年后备人才支持计划;2018年度天津市哲学社会科学规划项目(TJZXQN18-006)。

摘　　要：基于中国1992-2021年宏观经济统计数据,构建了包含全要素生产率灾害影响的新凯恩斯经济体动态随机一般均衡(DSGE)模型,并引入Calvo价格粘性、投资调整成本等因素,分析了数量型和价格型货币政策对我国宏观经济应对灾难冲击的调节效应。在灾难冲击下,我国宏观经济呈现短期下行态势,两种货币政策短期对经济均具有明显改善效应,长期均能促进经济恢复均衡状态。前者短期促进经济水平显著上升,但恢复均衡状态耗时较长。后者调节效应更加缓和,并且经济能够快速恢复其均衡值。因此,政府优化经济政策,相互协调配合,以应对灾难对宏观经济的冲击影响。Based on China’s macroeconomic statistics from 1992 to 2021,this paper develops a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium(DSGE)model of New Keynesian economy including the impact of total factor productivity disaster.The model also considers such factors as Calvo price stickiness and investment adjustment cost,to analyze the regulatory effect of quantitative and price-based monetary policies on China's macro-economy against the impact of disasters.Under the impact of disasters,China’s macro-economy presents a short-term downward trend.The two monetary policies have a significant improving adjustment effect on the economy in the short term,and they can restore the equilibrium of China's macro-economy in the long term.The former significantly promotes the economical level in the short term but the recovery period is relatively long.The latter has a moderate adjustment effect and leads the economical level quickly to reaching the equilibrium.Therefore,the government should optimize and harmonize policies to alleviate the impact of the disasters on China’s macro-economy.

关 键 词：灾难冲击 货币政策 DSGE模型 价格粘性 

分 类 号：F822.1[经济管理—财政学]