1990-2019年金砖五国结核病发病率变化及发病趋势预测  

Changes in tuberculosis incidence in BRICS countries from 1990 to 2019 and incidence trend prediction

作　　者：李丹妮 赵琦[2,3] 徐飚 Li Danni;Zhao Qi;Xu Biao(Department of Epidemiology,School of Public Health,Fudan University,Shanghai 200032,China;Key Laboratory of Health Technology Assessment,National Health Commission(Fudan University),Shanghai 200032,China;Department of Social Medicine,School of Public Health,Fudan University,Shanghai 200032,China)

机构地区：[1]复旦大学公共卫生学院流行病学教研室,上海200032 [2]国家卫生健康委员会卫生技术评估重点实验室(复旦大学),上海200032 [3]复旦大学公共卫生学院社会医学教研室,上海200032

出　　处：《中华流行病学杂志》2024年第8期1066-1072,共7页Chinese Journal of Epidemiology

基　　金：上海市加强公共卫生体系建设三年行动计划(2023-2025)重点学科项目(GWVI-11.1-05)。

摘　　要：目的了解1990-2019年金砖五国结核病疾病负担变迁,预测2020-2030年结核病发病情况。方法利用2019年全球疾病负担研究数据,描述1990-2019年金砖国家结核病发病率变化趋势和流行特征,采用贝叶斯-年龄-时期-队列模型,对金砖五国2020-2030年结核病发病率进行预测。结果1990-2019年,金砖五国结核病年龄标化发病率(ASIR)均有所下降,但下降幅度不同,中国降幅最大,南非降幅最小。2019年金砖五国结核病发病情况均存在性别差异和年龄差异,除南非外,其余四国结核病ASIR均为男性高于女性;除南非和俄罗斯外,结核病发病率均随年龄增长呈上升趋势。2020-2030年,金砖五国结核病发病率预计均呈下降趋势,但俄罗斯女性的结核病发病率可能上升。与2015年相比,2030年金砖五国结核病发病率预计下降均不足80%。结论金砖五国结核病防治行动已取得积极成果,但结核病防控形势依旧严峻,不同国家结核病发病存在人口学差异。Objective To understand the trend in the disease burden of tuberculosis in the BRICS countries(Brazil,Russia,India,China,and South Africa)from 1990 to 2019,forecast the incidence of tuberculosis in the BRICS countries from 2020 to 2030.Methods This study used data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 to describe the incidence trends from 1990 to 2019 and epidemiological characteristics of tuberculosis in the BRICS countries.The Bayesian-ageperiod-cohort model was used to predict the incidence of tuberculosis in the BRICS countries from 2020 to 2030.Results Although the age-standardized incidence rates(ASIR)of tuberculosis were on the decline in all BRICS countries,the magnitude of the decline varied,with the most significant decline in China and the least in South Africa.In 2019,there were gender and age differences in the incidence of tuberculosis in all BRICS countries.Except for South Africa,the ASIR in males were higher than that in females and except for South Africa and Russia,the incidence rates of tuberculosis showed an increasing trend with age in all BRICS countries.From 2020 to 2030,the incidence rates of tuberculosis in the BRICS countries were projected to be declining,except it was likely to increase among women in Russia.However,the expected decrease of tuberculosis incidence in the BRICS countries by 2030 would be less than 80%as compared to that of 2015.Conclusions Positive results have been achieved in the prevention and treatment of tuberculosis in BRICS countries.But the situation is still serious,with demographic differences in the incidence of tuberculosis in different countries.

关 键 词：结核病 金砖国家 发病率 贝叶斯分析 

分 类 号：R181.3[医药卫生—流行病学] R52[医药卫生—公共卫生与预防医学]