2018-2023年中国尖锐湿疣流行趋势及时空分布特征  

Epidemic trends and spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of condyloma acuminatum in China from 2018 to 2023

作　　者：梁诗晴 陈泽伟 岳晓丽[2] 李婧[2] 张家晖 龚向东 Liang Shiqing;Chen Zewei;Yue Xiaoli;Li Jing;Zhang Jiahui;Gong Xiangdong(School of Public Health,Nanjing Medical University,Nanjing 211166,China;Division of Sexually Transmitted Disease Epidemiology,Institute of Dermatology,Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College/National Center for Sexually Transmitted Disease Control,Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Nanjing 210042,China)

机构地区：[1]南京医科大学公共卫生学院,南京211166 [2]中国医学科学院北京协和医学院皮肤病研究所/中国疾病预防控制中心性病控制中心性病流行病学室,南京210042

出　　处：《中华流行病学杂志》2024年第8期1073-1078,共6页Chinese Journal of Epidemiology

基　　金：中国医学科学院医学与健康科技创新工程(CIFMS-2021-I2M-1-001)。

摘　　要：目的分析2018-2023年中国尖锐湿疣流行趋势及时空分布特征。方法通过中国疾病预防控制信息系统传染病报告信息管理系统收集2018-2023年31个省(自治区、直辖市)尖锐湿疣报告病例数及发病率数据,应用Joinpoint 4.9.1软件进行时间趋势分析,应用ArcGIS 10.5软件构建地理信息数据库并进行空间自相关分析,应用SaTScan 10.1.2软件进行时空扫描分析。结果2018-2023年尖锐湿疣报告发病率由7.26/10万下降至7.19/10万,平均年变化百分比为-0.26%,发病率下降趋势无统计学意义(t=-0.26,P=0.806)。全局Moran's I值范围为0.55~0.60(均P<0.001),表明各县(区)尖锐湿疣报告发病率呈显著的空间正自相关,全局G系数检验统计量均Z(G)>1.96,表明尖锐湿疣报告发病率呈高值聚集模式。局部空间自相关分析探测到各年热点地区的数量分别为256、244、246、284、308和315个,主要分布于浙江省、福建省、广东省、贵州省、云南省和重庆市。时空扫描分析共识别76个有统计学意义的时空聚集区,覆盖25个省(自治区、直辖市)。结论2018-2023年中国尖锐湿疣报告发病率略有下降,热点地区和时空聚集区分布基本一致,主要分布在东南沿海和西南地区。Objective Analyzing the epidemic trends and spatio-temporal distribution characteristics of condyloma acuminatum in China from 2018 to 2023.Methods Data of condyloma acuminatum cases and incidence rate including 31 provinces(autonomous regions and municipalities)from 2018 to 2023 were collected through the National Notifiable Infectious Disease Reporting System of China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention.Incidence trend analysis was conducted using Joinpoint 4.9.1 software,and spatial autocorrelation analysis using ArcGIS 10.5 software.Spatio-temporal scanning analysis was carried out with SaTScan 10.1.2 software.Results The incidence rate of condyloma acuminatum declined from 7.26 per 100000 in 2018 to 7.19 per 100000 in 2023.The average annual percent change was-0.26%,which was no statistically significant downward trend(t=-0.26,P=0.806).A significant positive global spatial autocorrelation was observed in the county-level incidence rate across the country,with the global Moran's I ranging from 0.55 to 0.60(all P<0.001);the Getis-Ord General test statistic Z(G)was all>1.96,indicating a high-value clustering pattern in the reported incidence rate of condyloma acuminatum.The local spatial autocorrelation analysis detected 256,244,246,284,308,and 315 hotspots each year,which were mainly located in the provinces of Zhejiang,Fujian,Guangdong,Guizhou,Yunnan and Chongqing.Spatio-temporal scanning analyses identified 76 statistically significant spatiotemporal clusters covering 25 provinces(autonomous regions and municipalities).Conclusions From 2018 to 2023,the reported incidence rate of condyloma acuminata in China exhibited a mild decline.The distribution of hotspot areas and spatiotemporal clusters was largely consistent,primarily in the southeastern coastal and southwestern regions.

关 键 词：尖锐湿疣 发病率 流行趋势 时空分析 

分 类 号：R752.53[医药卫生—皮肤病学与性病学] R181.3[医药卫生—临床医学]